- The Brewers are -250 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry (3-4), 5.97 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (13-4), 3.05 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+200) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-250) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 73-86 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-93 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -110 | O 7.5 -120 | +200 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -110 | U 7.5 +100 | -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s matchup with 65.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 53 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+13.65 Units / 65% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 52 games (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.20 Units / 84% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -115 |
| Tommy Henry | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 81 games (+40.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 87 of their last 148 games (+23.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 away games (+12.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 70 of their last 124 games (+9.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 27 away games (+7.10 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 72 of their last 139 games (+8.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.95 Units / 97% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 75 games at home (+7.82 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+5.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 92-67 against the Run Line (+21.1 Units / 10.37% ROI).
- 73-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -0.68% ROI
- 72-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.05 Units / -10.33% ROI
- 82-72 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.05 Units / 1.17% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 66-93 against the Run Line (-35.1 Units / -18.36% ROI).
- 84-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.9 Units / -9.47% ROI
- 75-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -4.66% ROI
- 76-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -3% ROI
Thomas Henry: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tommy Henry has limited playing time.
Brandon Woodruff: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Woodruff has a strikeout rate of 75% (21 SO in 28 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (8/66) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has struck out 46% (10/22) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 54% (108/200) against Brandon Woodruff on changeups this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are just 111-35 (.760) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 122-23 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 54-16 (.771) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.
The Diamondbacks are just 9-16 (.360) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are just 60-13 (.822) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.
The Brewers are just 9-34 (.209) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are 8-57 (.123) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Brewers are 16-9 (.640) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .292 (1,637 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 15%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .218 with two outs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .312 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Calf, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Toe, D15
- Emmanuel Rivera (Diamondbacks): Wrist, D60
- Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks): Arm, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): Undisclosed, D10
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
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