Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Diamondbacks (73-87) are -125 favorites vs the Brewers (85-75)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen (12-3), 2.46 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (10-7), 3.83 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+105) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 73-87 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-94 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks-1.5 +140O 7 -120-125
Brewers +1.5 -165U 7 +100+105

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 53 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jake McCarthy has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+13.65 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 52 games (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.20 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Christian Yelich 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Garrett Mitchell 0.5 +1100 0.5
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jace Peterson 0.5 +1000 0.5

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Christian Yelich 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Garrett Mitchell 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jace Peterson 0.5 -115 0.5 -120

Brewers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Christian Yelich 0.5 +300 0.5 -550
Garrett Mitchell 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jace Peterson 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Lauer 5.5 -115 5.5 -125
Zac Gallen 6.5 -135 6.5 -105
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 8 games (+8.95 Units / 95% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 93-67 against the Run Line (+22.15 Units / 10.83% ROI).

  • 73-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -1.23% ROI
  • 73-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.05 Units / -9.7% ROI
  • 82-73 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 0.51% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 66-94 against the Run Line (-36.35 Units / -18.89% ROI).

  • 85-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.9 Units / -8.98% ROI
  • 76-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -4.07% ROI
  • 76-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.4 Units / -3.63% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .184 (116-for-631) against Zac Gallen this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .127 (21-for-166) against Zac Gallen when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .143 (43-for-300) against Zac Gallen this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.

Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .249 (690 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 95th Percentile.

Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (200/609) against Eric Lauer since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (159/535) against Eric Lauer on fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .277 (33-for-119) against Eric Lauer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 94th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (271/758) against Eric Lauer since the start of last season — tied for 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 44% — ninth Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Diamondbacks are just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 122-24 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 54-17 (.761) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Brewers are just 66-8 (.892) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Brewers are 16-9 (.640) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 9-57 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Brewers hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Calf, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Ankle, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Toe, D15
  • Emmanuel Rivera (Diamondbacks): Wrist, D60
  • Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks): Arm, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): Undisclosed, D10
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.