- The Diamondbacks are -120 favorites vs the Brewers
- Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Brewers TV Channel: FOX
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+100) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 84-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 79-73 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 9-9, 4.81 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Tobias Myers 8-5, 3.07 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -105 | -120 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -115 | +100 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 33 games (+39.10 Units / 118% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 49 games (+19.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+13.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+13.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 47 games (+27.40 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+22.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+17.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tobias Myers has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 96 games (+31.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 95 games (+19.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 25 games (+25.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 25 games (+25.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 152 games (+12.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 77 of their last 148 games (+10.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games at home (+8.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 77-75 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -2.74% ROI).
- 84-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.2 Units / 5.27% ROI
- 87-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +20.25 Units / 12.02% ROI
- 60-87 when betting on the total runs Under for -35.45 Units / -21.34% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 79-73 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.02% ROI).
- 88-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.65 Units / 6.5% ROI
- 78-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.5 Units / 5.11% ROI
- 64-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -22 Units / -13.08% ROI
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -400 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake McCarthy (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tobias Myers (MIL) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .292 (26-for-89) against Brandon Pfaadt’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .208 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .289 (69-for-239) against Brandon Pfaadt when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — seventh Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (497/699) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has walked 11 of 257 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tobias Myers has not walked any of the 26 batters that he has faced over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for best among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .149 (14-for-94) against Tobias Myers with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 98th Percentile.
Tobias Myers has allowed an OPS of just .446 (109 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .728 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .346 (9-for-26) against Tobias Myers over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd highest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .197 — fourth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are 44-35 (.557) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Diamondbacks are 42-43 (.494) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .374.
The Diamondbacks are just 204-18 (.919) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 185-29 (.864) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 36-80 (.310) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Brewers are 37-37 (.500) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Brewers are 26-16 (.619) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 26-22 (.542) after a road win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .347 (1,891 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Diamondbacks are batting .285 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Diamondbacks are batting .281 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .703 (343 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have drawn 463 walks in 4,732 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers hitters have drawn 156 walks in 1,484 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Brewers won 57% of games in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.69 (2800.1 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
- Arizona Diamondbacks – No Injuries Reported
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