Diamondbacks vs Giants Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Giants (43-41) are -160 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (38-48)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (7-5), 3.42 ERA
  • Giants starting pitcher: Alexander Cobb (3-3), 4.73 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-160) on Monday, July 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT in San Francisco.

The Giants are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Diamondbacks vs Giants Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 38-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 41-43 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -150O 7.5 -105+135
Giants -1.5 +125U 7.5 -115-160

Diamondbacks vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 33 games (+18.95 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 away games (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.80 Units / 79% ROI)

Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Belt has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Joc Pederson has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.70 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+3.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+3.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Wilmer Flores has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+2.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Giants vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Wynns 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Brandon Belt 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Brandon Crawford 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
David Villar 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Joc Pederson 0.5 +375 0.5 -650

Giants vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Wynns 0.5 -125 0.5 -115
Brandon Belt 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Brandon Crawford 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
David Villar 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Joc Pederson 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Giants vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Wynns 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
Brandon Belt 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Brandon Crawford 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
David Villar 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Joc Pederson 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Giants vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Cobb 4.5 -125 4.5 -115
Merrill Kelly 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 75 games (+8.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+7.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 64 games (+7.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 33 away games (+3.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+13.10 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+4.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+3.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 48-38 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 5.43% ROI).

  • 38-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -5.65% ROI
  • 39-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.95 Units / -9.5% ROI
  • 44-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.52% ROI

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 41-43 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -4.4% ROI).

  • 43-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.9 Units / -11.73% ROI
  • 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -1.19% ROI
  • 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.6 Units / -8.14% ROI

Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of 66% when ahead in the count (seventh highest)– 90th Percentile and 66% when behind in the count this season (ninth lowest among qualified SPs)– 13th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (24/123) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 12th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (53/283) against Merrill Kelly this season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 12th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .238 (10-for-42) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — 93rd Percentile.

Alexander Cobb: Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (108/169) against Alex Cobb this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Alex Cobb has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (585/1,211) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total CH; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (248/428) against Alex Cobb since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (121/206) against Alex Cobb since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Giants

The Diamondbacks are just 85-24 (.780) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Diamondbacks are just 93-16 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 45-104 (.302) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

The Diamondbacks are just 28-5 (.848) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.

Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Giants are 30-5 (.857) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

The Giants are just 6-9 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Giants are just 3-30 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Giants are 14-6 (.700) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .194 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .212 with two outs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .222 this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Giants are batting just .208 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

The Giants are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Giants hitters are slugging just .372 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Giants hitters are slugging just .159 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .216.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Giants pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Giants pitchers have walked 3 of 106 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Curtis Casali (Giants): Oblique, D10
  • Evan Longoria (Giants): Oblique, D10
  • Thomas La Stella (Giants): COVID-19, D10
  • José Álvarez (Giants): Elbow, D15
  • Jakob Junis (Giants): Groin, D15
  • Colton Welker (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Forearm, D60
  • Zack Littell (Giants): Oblique, D15
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
  • Matthew Boyd (Giants): Elbow, D60
  • Brandon Belt (Giants): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.