- The Marlins are -140 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-140) on Sunday, April 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Diamondbacks vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 8-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 6-9 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -190 | O 7 -115 | +115 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +155 | U 7 -105 | -140 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Gabriel Moreno has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 123% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 14 games (+6.65 Units / 47% ROI)
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.55 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+5.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.70 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in their last 4 games (+5.00 Units / 104% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 10-5 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 22.56% ROI).
- 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 26.73% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -4.5% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -3.34% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 6-9 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -28.57% ROI).
- 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 10.32% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -16.82% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 7.51% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .191 (137-for-718) against Zac Gallen since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .138 (26-for-188) against Zac Gallen when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 33% (14/42) against Zac Gallen this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 90th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has struck out 31% (11/35) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 90th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,108/1,536) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has thrown his changeup 35% of the time (26/75) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has struck out just 9% (3/33) of right-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% (135/679) against Sandy Alcantara since last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Diamondbacks are just 106-23 (.822) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 122-24 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 97-33 (.746) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Marlins are 8-0 (1.000) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Marlins are 20-3 (.870) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Marlins are just 9-60 (.130) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Marlins are just 57-14 (.803) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .880.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .263 (279 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 48% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Diamondbacks on 58% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.. *
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .334 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (3,123 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,653 PA’s) against LHP since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .613 (1,427 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 12% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 17 of 133 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
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