- The Dodgers are -150 favorites vs the Padres
- Dodgers vs Padres Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Dodgers / Padres TV Channel: SNLA | PDTV
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-150) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+125) on Saturday, May 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Dodgers are 26-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 22-19 ATS.
Dodgers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Dodgers starting pitcher: James Paxton 4-0, 3.10 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 1-4, 5.83 ERA
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +105 | O 9 +100 | -150 |
| Padres | +1.5 -125 | U 9 -120 | +125 |
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 59.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+13.40 Units / 191% ROI)
- James Outman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Andy Pages has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 33 games (+8.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+7.85 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games at home (+19.90 Units / 166% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+15.25 Units / 72% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+13.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 61 away games (+17.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 122 games (+15.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 80 games (+11.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.34 Units / 88% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 58 games at home (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Dodgers are 21-19 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -0.43% ROI).
- 26-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.32% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 3.33% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.1 Units / -11.46% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 22-19 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 10.82% ROI).
- 21-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -1.39% ROI
- 21-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.67% ROI
- 19-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -9.25% ROI
Padres vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -275 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Padres vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andy Pages (LAD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Donovan Solano (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Will Smith (LAD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Padres vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton (LAD) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has walked 24 of 139 batters (17%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 22 of 113 right-handed batters (20%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 13 of 53 batters (24%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 8 of 30 batters (27%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has allowed an OPS of 1.251 (61 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .732 — first Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .426 against Matt Waldron this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (24/200) against Matt Waldron in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 27 of Matt Waldron’s 173 off-speed pitches out of the zone (16%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 46-16 (.742) after a road loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .460.
The Dodgers are 213-34 (.862) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Dodgers are 113-14 (.890) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Dodgers are 29-9 (.763) after a road loss since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are just 5-17 (.227) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Padres are just 7-136 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are just 4-145 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 89-14 (.864) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (4,867 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Padres vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brusdar Graterol (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tony Gonsolin (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Diego Cartaya (Los Angeles Dodgers): Back, Day-To-Day
- Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers): Chest, 15-Day IL
- David Peralta (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, Out
- Emmet Sheehan (Los Angeles Dodgers): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Julio Urias (Los Angeles Dodgers): Personal, Out
- Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Frasso (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, Out
- Dustin May (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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