- The – are favorites vs the –
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Los Angeles Dodgers () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Thursday, April 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Dodgers vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Dodgers are 13-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 16-9 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | O | ||
| Pirates | U |
Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 65.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Dodgers vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.20 Units / 68% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Max Muncy has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+6.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Pirates vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Julio Urias | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+1.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+1.55 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 22 games (+14.05 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+13.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 11-14 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -10.47% ROI).
- 13-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -17.27% ROI
- 14-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.15 Units / 11.41% ROI
- 10-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.1 Units / -18.55% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 16-9 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 18.32% ROI).
- 17-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.95 Units / 46.84% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -10.73% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 4.91% ROI
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julio Urias has allowed a slugging percentage of .900 (18 Total Bases / 20 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .394 — third Percentile.
Julio Urias has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (37/91) when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has a strike rate of 72% (951/1,314) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (193/568) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (3/15) against Mitch Keller when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 17% (6/35) against Mitch Keller vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 12% (4/32) against Mitch Keller on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 68% (326/481) this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 93rd Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Dodgers are just 1-4 (.200) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Dodgers are just 1-4 (.200) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Dodgers are 6-51 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Dodgers are 32-21 (.604) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Pirates are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Pirates are 7-6 (.538) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Pirates are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Pirates are just 74-95 (.438) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Dodgers are batting just .172 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .767 (2,198 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Dodgers hitters have grounded into 99 double plays in 1,375 opportunities (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .337 (5,230 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have put 45% of their swings in play in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .671 (4,717 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .372 against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.04 (1546.1 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.03 (829.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
The Dodgers have allowed 3.34 runs per game (314/94) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 676 of 7,190 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Pirates have allowed 3.15 runs per game (41/13) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Pirates vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- William Smith (Dodgers): Concussion, D7
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Miguel Rojas (Dodgers): Hamstring, D10
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
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