- The Guardians are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Watch the game on MASN
The Cleveland Guardians (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Friday, April 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Guardians vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 7-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 7-6 ATS.
Guardians vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +105 | O 9.5 -115 | -155 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | U 9.5 -105 | +130 |
Guardians vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 64.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+12.90 Units / 108% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+11.45 Units / 114% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 71% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.15 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Nationals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
Nationals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Josh Naylor | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -225 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jose Ramirez | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Nationals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
| Trevor Williams | 2.5 -160 | 2.5 +120 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+3.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+3.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 games (+2.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 6-7 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -5.42% ROI).
- 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 1.26% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 9.72% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -18.66% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 7-6 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 7.14% ROI).
- 4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -21.54% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 4.55% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -9.79% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
31 of Cal Quantrill’s 105 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 15% (115/778) against Cal Quantrill in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 33% (134 SO in 406 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
16 of Cal Quantrill’s 58 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .700 (42 Total Bases / 60 ABs) on breaking pitches since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .328 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams struck out just 9% (13/148) of left-handed batters he faced in 2022 — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has struck out just 9% (16/170) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 50% (332/660) of the time since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Guardians are 19-59 (.244) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 14-62 (.184) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Guardians were 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Nationals are just 109-13 (.893) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 17-32 (.347) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals were just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 62-106 (.369) at home since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 872 strikeouts in 4,979 PA’s (17%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .347 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .279 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Nationals hitters have just 35 strikeouts in 237 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 311 double plays in 2,445 opportunities (13%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 38 of 504 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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