- The Guardians (68-64) are -135 favorites vs the Royals (55-80)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (9-11), 3.18 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer (7-4), 3.32 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians (-135) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+110) on Monday, September 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 68-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 63-68 ATS.
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 -125 | -135 |
| Royals | +1.5 -155 | U 7.5 +105 | +110 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s matchup with 55.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+18.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.75 Units / 108% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 52 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 58 of his last 91 games (+12.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+10.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 77% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -165 |
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+8.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+8.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+8.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 26 games (+7.15 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 81 games (+17.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 42 games (+4.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+3.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+3.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 68-63 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.57% ROI).
- 68-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 3.35% ROI
- 56-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -11.42% ROI
- 66-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 3.08% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 63-68 against the Run Line (-17.05 Units / -9.9% ROI).
- 55-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.35 Units / -6.68% ROI
- 66-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -1.42% ROI
- 62-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -7.66% ROI
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (79/248) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .164 (11-for-67) against Triston McKenzie on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (50/150) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .218 (147 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Brady Singer: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 61% of Brady Singer’s pitches in the zone (1,332/2,198) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 60% of Brady Singer’s pitches in the zone (610/1,019) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 37% (1,110/3,012) against Brady Singer in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Brady Singer has allowed a slugging percentage of .350 (185 Total Bases / 528 ABs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .266 — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Guardians are 46-2 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Guardians are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 4-34 (.105) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
The Royals are just 8-57 (.123) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Royals are just 21-65 (.244) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Royals are just 12-167 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .333 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters have just 648 strikeouts in 3,706 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .630 (1,269 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .692 (3,224 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 590 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .372 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Royals hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 53% against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Royals hitters have a swing rate of 50% against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Guardians pitchers have walked 73 of 1,177 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .225.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Royals pitchers have walked 506 of 5,227 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,097 of 11,354 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
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