Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 5

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (68-64) are -135 favorites vs the Royals (55-80)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (9-11), 3.18 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer (7-4), 3.32 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Cleveland Guardians (-135) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+110) on Monday, September 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 68-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 63-68 ATS.

Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +125O 7.5 -125-135
Royals +1.5 -155U 7.5 +105+110

Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s matchup with 55.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+18.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.75 Units / 108% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 52 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 58 of his last 91 games (+12.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+10.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)

Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Kyle Isbel 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
MJ Melendez 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Nick Pratto 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100

Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Kyle Isbel 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
MJ Melendez 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Nick Pratto 0.5 -135 0.5 -105

Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Kyle Isbel 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
MJ Melendez 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Nick Pratto 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brady Singer 4.5 +120 4.5 -165
Triston McKenzie 5.5 -130 5.5 -110
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+8.80 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+8.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+8.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 26 games (+7.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 81 games (+17.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 42 games (+4.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+3.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+3.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 68-63 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.57% ROI).

  • 68-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 3.35% ROI
  • 56-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -11.42% ROI
  • 66-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 3.08% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 63-68 against the Run Line (-17.05 Units / -9.9% ROI).

  • 55-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.35 Units / -6.68% ROI
  • 66-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -1.42% ROI
  • 62-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -7.66% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (79/248) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .164 (11-for-67) against Triston McKenzie on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (50/150) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .218 (147 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.

Brady Singer: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 61% of Brady Singer’s pitches in the zone (1,332/2,198) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 60% of Brady Singer’s pitches in the zone (610/1,019) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 37% (1,110/3,012) against Brady Singer in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Brady Singer has allowed a slugging percentage of .350 (185 Total Bases / 528 ABs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .266 — third Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Guardians are 46-2 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Guardians are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 4-34 (.105) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.

The Royals are just 8-57 (.123) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.

The Royals are just 21-65 (.244) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Royals are just 12-167 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .333 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have just 648 strikeouts in 3,706 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .630 (1,269 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .692 (3,224 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Royals hitters have just 590 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .372 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.

Royals hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 53% against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Royals hitters have a swing rate of 50% against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Guardians pitchers have walked 73 of 1,177 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .225.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Royals pitchers have walked 506 of 5,227 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Royals pitchers have walked 1,097 of 11,354 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
  • Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.