Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 06, 2022, 10:27 AM
  • The Astros (35-19) are -160 favorites vs the Mariners (24-30)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Robert Ray (4-6), 4.93 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier (3-2), 2.41 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Seattle Mariners (+135) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-160) on Monday, June 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Mariners vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 24-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 27-27 ATS.

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners+1.5 -150O 8 +100+135
Astros -1.5 +125U 8 -120-160

Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s matchup with 51.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ty France has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+17.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in his last 13 away games (+13.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 46 games (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+11.10 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+9.30 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+7.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Michael Brantley has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.95 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+6.85 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1H Total Over in 25 of their last 45 games (+6.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 52 games (+20.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 38 games (+13.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1H Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.55 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+7.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 27-27 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -8.97% ROI).

  • 24-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -8.78% ROI
  • 28-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 1.77% ROI
  • 25-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.7 Units / -9.51% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 27-27 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 2.33% ROI).

  • 35-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.15 Units / 11.13% ROI
  • 15-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.65 Units / -41.78% ROI
  • 37-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.7 Units / 34.53% ROI

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 39% (69/179) against Robbie Ray this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 53% of the time (544/1,024) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Robbie Ray has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.062 (17 Total Bases / 16 ABs) on low fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .434 — first Percentile.

Robbie Ray has thrown inside pitches 54% of the time (443/828) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.

Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 49% (286/589) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 55% of the time (360/657) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .093 (29-for-311) against Cristian Javier with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 99th Percentile.

Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 57% of the time (274/480) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Mariners are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.

The Mariners are 19-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .905.

The Mariners are just 3-15 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

The Mariners are 18-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .925.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Astros are 18-0 (1.000) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

The Astros are 28-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .925.

The Astros are 29-1 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .905.

The Astros are 10-2 (.833) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .155 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .162 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.

Mariners hitters have chased 23% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Astros hitters have an OBP of .268 (4,282 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Astros are batting .190 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros hitters have just 487 strikeouts in 2,666 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Mariners pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH since the start of last season (5,515 balls in play) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.8

The Astros have allowed 2.75 runs per game (55/20) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.24 (181.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 394.3 feet — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
  • Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Kyle Lewis (Mariners): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D10
  • Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Finger, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Sports Hernia, D60
  • Erik Swanson (Mariners): Right Shouler, D15
  • Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.