- The Mariners (73-58) are -145 favorites vs the Guardians (68-61)
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (5-5), 2.85 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (3-11), 4.39 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Seattle Mariners (-145) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+120) on Friday, September 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Mariners vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mariners are 72-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 68-60 ATS.
Mariners vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +120 | O 7.5 -115 | -145 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -145 | U 7.5 -105 | +120 |
Mariners vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 51 away games (+24.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 51 away games (+14.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games at home (+13.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+11.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+11.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 40 of their last 72 games (+9.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+9.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 89 games (+3.70 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-60 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.59% ROI).
- 72-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.35 Units / 8.39% ROI
- 59-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -5.87% ROI
- 62-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.76% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-60 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 2.04% ROI).
- 68-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 5.3% ROI
- 55-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.2 Units / -10.8% ROI
- 64-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.6 Units / 2.55% ROI
Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 51% (50 SO in 99 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .095 (8-for-84) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .225 — 99th Percentile.
60% of Luis Castillo’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (191/328) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Plesac has allowed an OBP of .447 (94 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .316 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .378 (31-for-82) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has a strikeout rate of just 9% (8 SO in 94 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .631 (65 Total Bases / 103 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: .419 — 0 Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mariners are 32-14 (.696) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 32-8 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
The Mariners are 49-7 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mariners are 38-30 (.559) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Guardians are 11-53 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Guardians are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Guardians are 45-4 (.918) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .165 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .217 at home since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Mariners are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 896 strikeouts in 4,857 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .983 (2,032 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Guardians hitters have just 634 strikeouts in 3,616 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Mariners have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 70 of 1,148 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Oblique, D10
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
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