Mariners vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 02, 2022, 10:58 AM
  • The Mariners (73-58) are -145 favorites vs the Guardians (68-61)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (5-5), 2.85 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (3-11), 4.39 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Seattle Mariners (-145) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+120) on Friday, September 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Mariners vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 72-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 68-60 ATS.

Mariners vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners-1.5 +120O 7.5 -115-145
Guardians +1.5 -145U 7.5 -105+120

Mariners vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s matchup with 53.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Mariners and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 51 away games (+24.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 51 away games (+14.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Adam Frazier has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games at home (+13.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+11.75 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+11.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 40 of their last 72 games (+9.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+9.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 89 games (+3.70 Units / 4% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-60 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.59% ROI).

  • 72-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.35 Units / 8.39% ROI
  • 59-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -5.87% ROI
  • 62-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.76% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-60 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 2.04% ROI).

  • 68-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 5.3% ROI
  • 55-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.2 Units / -10.8% ROI
  • 64-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.6 Units / 2.55% ROI

Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 51% (50 SO in 99 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .095 (8-for-84) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .225 — 99th Percentile.

60% of Luis Castillo’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (191/328) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.

Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zach Plesac has allowed an OBP of .447 (94 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .316 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .378 (31-for-82) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.

Zach Plesac has a strikeout rate of just 9% (8 SO in 94 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .631 (65 Total Bases / 103 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: .419 — 0 Percentile.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Mariners are 32-14 (.696) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 32-8 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

The Mariners are 49-7 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Mariners are 38-30 (.559) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Guardians are 11-53 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Guardians are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Guardians are 45-4 (.918) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Guardians are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .165 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .217 at home since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Mariners hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Mariners are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Guardians hitters have just 896 strikeouts in 4,857 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .983 (2,032 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

Guardians hitters have just 634 strikeouts in 3,616 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Mariners have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 70 of 1,148 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Guardians vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Dylan Moore (Mariners): Oblique, D10
  • Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.