- The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Devin Smeltzer, 7.71 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown, 18.00 ERA
The Miami Marlins (+120) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Marlins vs Astros Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Marlins are 3-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 6-4 ATS.
Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | O 9.5 -110 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | U 9.5 -110 | -145 |
Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 67.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Erik Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- Charles Leblanc has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+2.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+2.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 3-9 against the Run Line (-7.7 Units / -50.99% ROI).
- 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -43.88% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.55 Units / -35.14% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 25.93% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 6-4 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 9.38% ROI).
- 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 23.48% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -43.3% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 34.72% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera allowed a BABIP of .207 last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .177 (44-for-249) against Edward Cabrera last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (32/174) versus Edward Cabrera last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera threw off-speed pitches 69% of the time (837/1,215) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Brown has pitched 16.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — J.P. Feyereisen has the longest active streak at 24.1.
Hunter Brown has not allowed a home run in any of the last 24.0 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 67.1.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (22/36) against Hunter Brown over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 11% (4/36) versus Hunter Brown over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 67-76 (.469) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are 39-5 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Marlins batted just .208 against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.73 (734.0 IP) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Astros vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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