Marlins vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 12

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 12, 2023, 11:06 AM
  • The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Devin Smeltzer, 7.71 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown, 18.00 ERA

The Miami Marlins (+120) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.

The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Marlins vs Astros Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Marlins are 3-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 6-4 ATS.

Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -165O 9.5 -110+120
Astros -1.5 +140U 9.5 -110-145

Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 67.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Marlins vs Astros and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+3.60 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Erik Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Charles Leblanc has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+2.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+2.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 3-9 against the Run Line (-7.7 Units / -50.99% ROI).

  • 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -43.88% ROI
  • 3-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.55 Units / -35.14% ROI
  • 7-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 25.93% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 6-4 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 9.38% ROI).

  • 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 23.48% ROI
  • 3-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -43.3% ROI
  • 7-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 34.72% ROI

Edward Cabrera allowed a BABIP of .207 last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents batted just .177 (44-for-249) against Edward Cabrera last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (32/174) versus Edward Cabrera last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Edward Cabrera threw off-speed pitches 69% of the time (837/1,215) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hunter Brown has pitched 16.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — J.P. Feyereisen has the longest active streak at 24.1.

Hunter Brown has not allowed a home run in any of the last 24.0 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 67.1.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (22/36) against Hunter Brown over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents had a line drive rate of just 11% (4/36) versus Hunter Brown over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Marlins are just 55-9 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Marlins are just 67-76 (.469) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Marlins are 39-5 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Marlins batted just .208 against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.73 (734.0 IP) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.

Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Astros vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
  • Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.