- The Brewers are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Brewers TV Channel: BSFL | BSWI
The Miami Marlins (+165) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-200) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Marlins are 39-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 54-50 ATS.
Marlins vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Kyle Tyler 0-1, 3.99 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Tobias Myers 6-4, 3.16 ERA
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -115 | +165 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -105 | -200 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 65.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+31.50 Units / 525% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+13.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+14.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 19 games at home (+13.40 Units / 71% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+13.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+9.65 Units / 40% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 46 away games (+14.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 78 games (+11.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 87 games (+9.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 71% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+12.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games at home (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 104 games (+7.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+6.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 50-55 against the Run Line (-21.01 Units / -15.12% ROI).
- 39-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.9 Units / -15.2% ROI
- 58-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.1 Units / 7.86% ROI
- 45-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.95 Units / -15.58% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 54-50 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 0.95% ROI).
- 59-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.7 Units / 5.81% ROI
- 56-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.35 Units / 8.23% ROI
- 43-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.85 Units / -16.36% ROI
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tobias Myers (MIL) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Kyle Tyler (MIA) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Tyler has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 11.2 innings pitched — Ryan Helsley has the longest active streak at 22.0.
Kyle Tyler has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to June 28th — the longest active streak is 13.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (25/81) against Kyle Tyler this month (2 games) — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 92nd Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tobias Myers has allowed an OBP of .405 (42 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 47% (37/78) against Tobias Myers on the first pitch of at-bats this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .359 (14-for-39) against Tobias Myers this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — third Percentile.
95% of Tobias Myers’ called strikeouts are outside this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 13-12 (.520) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .760.
The Marlins are just 20-9 (.690) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Marlins are just 10-14 (.417) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 28-21 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Brewers are 42-3 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Brewers are 40-26 (.606) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 46-114 (.288) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,236 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .620 (1,236 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .297 (3,941 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,556/16,193 PA’s) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Brewers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters have 32 extra-base hits out of 121 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 8 of 53 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.28 (784.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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