- The Cubs are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | BSFL | ESPN+
The Miami Marlins (+135) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-160) on Thursday, April 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Marlins are 4-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 13-5 ATS.
Marlins vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: A.J. Puk 0-3, 6.10 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -155 | O 8 -115 | +135 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -105 | -160 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Fortes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Tim Anderson has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Miles Mastrobuoni has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+9.20 Units / 84% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Hendricks has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.85 Units / 57% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 away games (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 6-13 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -44.25% ROI).
- 4-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -52.26% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 11.3% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -19.29% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 13-5 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 22.1% ROI).
- 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.5 Units / 25.23% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -4.25% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.65 Units / -3.31% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
A.J. Puk has walked 14 of 58 batters (24%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
A.J. Puk has walked 12 of 47 right-handed batters (26%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
A.J. Puk’s K:BB ratio was 6.0 (78/13) in the 2023 season — best among in NL; League Avg: 2.7 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 49% (34/70) against A.J. Puk on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best among in NL; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has walked 9 of 329 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.4 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (146 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 89.9
Jameson Taillon has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (457/655) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 19 of 737 right-handed batters (3%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins were 54-8 (.871) when they scored 5 or more runs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Marlins were 7-65 (.097) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are just 57-14 (.803) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Marlins are 59-11 (.843) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .783.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are 36-17 (.679) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Cubs are just 34-38 (.472) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs were just 10-22 (.312) after a win as underdogs in 2023 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Cubs are just 13-26 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .252 (329 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .297 (3,034 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .914 (125 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Cubs hitters are slugging .554 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .328 (5,075 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .383 (235 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 85 of 731 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 472.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 440.0
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .220 against Cubs pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs pitchers have walked 20 of 162 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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