Marlins vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 06, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (48-58) are -115 favorites vs the Cubs (42-63)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (7-6), 3.41 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (3-6), 4.42 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Miami Marlins (-115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-105) on Saturday, August 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Marlins vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 48-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 53-52 ATS.

Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins-1.5 +140O 8.5 -105-115
Cubs +1.5 -165U 8.5 -115-105

Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s matchup with 76.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.65 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.65 Units / 33% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 51 games (+16.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+13.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+13.55 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 56 games (+13.35 Units / 17% ROI)

Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Ian Happ 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Rafael Ortega 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100

Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Ian Happ 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Nico Hoerner 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Rafael Ortega 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Ian Happ 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Rafael Ortega 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 55 away games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 34 games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+1.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+11.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 78 games (+4.50 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.25 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-59 against the Run Line (-19.8 Units / -14.12% ROI).

  • 48-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.25 Units / -11.81% ROI
  • 50-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -5.95% ROI
  • 52-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -2.15% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 53-52 against the Run Line (-8.5 Units / -6.21% ROI).

  • 42-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.75 Units / -14.35% ROI
  • 45-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -12.27% ROI
  • 54-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 4.15% ROI

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (79/193) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (125/318) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .273 (12-for-44) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .335 — 85th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 46% of the time (187/404) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

13 of Drew Smyly’s 38 breaking pitch strikeouts (34%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,333/3,164) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (355/749) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,020/2,305) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total CB; League Avg: 14% — 99th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Marlins are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Marlins are just 8-25 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

The Marlins are just 6-36 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

The Marlins are just 23-28 (.451) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Cubs are just 5-29 (.147) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Cubs are just 7-33 (.175) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

The Cubs are just 21-31 (.404) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .476.

The Cubs are 117-5 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .277 (806 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Marlins hitters have 88 extra-base hits out of 316 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,502 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Marlins hitters have 693 strikeouts in 2,502 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 47 double plays in 318 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .645.

Cubs hitters have 670 strikeouts in 2,675 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .348 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.