- The Marlins (48-58) are -115 favorites vs the Cubs (42-63)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (7-6), 3.41 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (3-6), 4.42 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Miami Marlins (-115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-105) on Saturday, August 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Marlins vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 48-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 53-52 ATS.
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -105 | -115 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -115 | -105 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s matchup with 76.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.65 Units / 33% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 51 games (+16.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+13.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+13.55 Units / 60% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 56 games (+13.35 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 55 away games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 34 games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+1.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+11.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 78 games (+4.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-59 against the Run Line (-19.8 Units / -14.12% ROI).
- 48-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.25 Units / -11.81% ROI
- 50-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -5.95% ROI
- 52-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -2.15% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 53-52 against the Run Line (-8.5 Units / -6.21% ROI).
- 42-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.75 Units / -14.35% ROI
- 45-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -12.27% ROI
- 54-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 4.15% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (79/193) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (125/318) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .273 (12-for-44) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .335 — 85th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 46% of the time (187/404) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
13 of Drew Smyly’s 38 breaking pitch strikeouts (34%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,333/3,164) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (355/749) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,020/2,305) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total CB; League Avg: 14% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Marlins are just 8-25 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Marlins are just 6-36 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Marlins are just 23-28 (.451) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are just 5-29 (.147) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Cubs are just 7-33 (.175) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Cubs are just 21-31 (.404) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Cubs are 117-5 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .277 (806 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have 88 extra-base hits out of 316 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,502 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have 693 strikeouts in 2,502 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 47 double plays in 318 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .645.
Cubs hitters have 670 strikeouts in 2,675 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .348 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.