Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 18, 2022, 11:18 AM
  • The Mets (43-23) are -185 favorites vs the Marlins (28-34)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (1-1), 4.00 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (4-2), 3.07 ERA
  • Watch the game on WPIX

The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-185) on Saturday, June 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 28-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-27 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -140O 7.5 +100+150
Mets -1.5 +115U 7.5 -120-185

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 61.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 away games (+5.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+4.95 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Luis Guillorme has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.05 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Luis Guillorme has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.85 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 29 games at home (+5.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
    Francisco Lindor 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
    J.D. Davis 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
    Jeff McNeil 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
    Luis Guillorme 0.5 +1250 0.5

    Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
    Francisco Lindor 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
    J.D. Davis 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
    Jeff McNeil 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
    Luis Guillorme 0.5 -185 0.5 +125

    Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
    Francisco Lindor 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
    J.D. Davis 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
    Jeff McNeil 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
    Luis Guillorme 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

    Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Taijuan Walker 4.5 -125 4.5 -110
    Braxton Garrett 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+7.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 33 away games (+4.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 25 games at home (+16.02 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 66 games (+15.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 66 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 25 games at home (+12.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+11.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-29 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 2.03% ROI).

    • 28-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -11.6% ROI
    • 32-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.45 Units / 0.65% ROI
    • 29-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -8.46% ROI

    Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 39-27 against the Run Line (+13.8 Units / 17.41% ROI).

    • 43-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.25 Units / 16.52% ROI
    • 35-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 6.43% ROI
    • 27-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.85 Units / -15.17% ROI

    Opponents had a chase percentage of 47% (21/45) against Braxton Garrett — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.

    Braxton Garrett had a first-pitch strike rate of 75% (18/24) — 5th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 96th Percentile.

    Braxton Garrett had a strike rate of 71% (59/83) — 8th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 93rd Percentile.

    The hardest ball hit off of Braxton Garrett was just 103.8 MPH — 3rd hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.5

    Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Opponents are hitting .560 (14-for-25) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .334 — 0 Percentile.

    Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 6% (1/16) against Taijuan Walker against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting .412 (14-for-34) against Taijuan Walker’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .230 — second Percentile.

    Opponents are hitting .560 against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — worst among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP– 0 Percentile. Opponents batted just .269 (18-for-67) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP– 90th Percentile.

    Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

    The Marlins are just 27-28 (.491) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

    The Marlins are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

    The Marlins are just 25-3 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.

    The Marlins are just 0-26 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.

    Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

    The Mets are 21-14 (.600) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.

    The Mets are 22-9 (.710) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

    The Mets are 11-2 (.846) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

    The Mets are just 4-13 (.235) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.

    Marlins hitters have 617 strikeouts in 2,215 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Marlins hitters have 151 strikeouts in 519 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

    Marlins hitters are slugging just .313 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

    Mets hitters have an OBP of .339 (1,769 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

    Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .283 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

    The Mets have scored first in 81% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

    Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .295 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.

    Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

    The Marlins have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    The Marlins have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 19% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

    Mets pitchers have walked 37 of 586 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
  • Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Undisclosed, D10
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jesús Aguilar (Marlins): Undisclosed, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.