- The Mets (43-23) are -185 favorites vs the Marlins (28-34)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (1-1), 4.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (4-2), 3.07 ERA
- Watch the game on WPIX
The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-185) on Saturday, June 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 28-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-27 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | O 7.5 +100 | +150 |
| Mets | -1.5 +115 | U 7.5 -120 | -185 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 61.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -110 |
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-29 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 2.03% ROI).
- 28-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -11.6% ROI
- 32-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.45 Units / 0.65% ROI
- 29-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -8.46% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 39-27 against the Run Line (+13.8 Units / 17.41% ROI).
- 43-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.25 Units / 16.52% ROI
- 35-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 6.43% ROI
- 27-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.85 Units / -15.17% ROI
Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of 47% (21/45) against Braxton Garrett — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett had a first-pitch strike rate of 75% (18/24) — 5th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 96th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett had a strike rate of 71% (59/83) — 8th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 93rd Percentile.
The hardest ball hit off of Braxton Garrett was just 103.8 MPH — 3rd hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.5
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .560 (14-for-25) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .334 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 6% (1/16) against Taijuan Walker against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .412 (14-for-34) against Taijuan Walker’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .230 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .560 against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — worst among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP– 0 Percentile. Opponents batted just .269 (18-for-67) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP– 90th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 27-28 (.491) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Marlins are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Marlins are just 25-3 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Marlins are just 0-26 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 21-14 (.600) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Mets are 22-9 (.710) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Mets are 11-2 (.846) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Mets are just 4-13 (.235) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 617 strikeouts in 2,215 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 151 strikeouts in 519 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .313 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .339 (1,769 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .283 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Mets have scored first in 81% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .295 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
The Marlins have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 19% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have walked 37 of 586 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
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