- The Marlins (44-50) are -175 favorites vs the Pirates (40-55)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (9-4), 1.75 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (3-7), 4.55 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Miami Marlins (-175) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) on Sunday, July 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Pirates Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 44-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 48-47 ATS.
Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +100 | O 7 +100 | -175 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | U 7 -120 | +145 |
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+15.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 37 games at home (+14.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+10.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -175 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +115 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -160 |
| Mitch Keller | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 22 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.10 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+9.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.05 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-50 against the Run Line (-11.45 Units / -9.2% ROI).
- 44-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.7 Units / -9.35% ROI
- 45-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -3.76% ROI
- 45-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -4% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 48-47 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -4.49% ROI).
- 40-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 1.36% ROI
- 39-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.3 Units / -14.73% ROI
- 50-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.9 Units / 6.53% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 13% (19/147) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (64/363) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (87/147) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OPS of just .323 (266 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .472 — 98th Percentile.
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .426 (158-for-371) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of just .077 (26 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .392 (406 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .305 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .405 (163-for-402) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are 28-4 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Marlins are just 6-17 (.261) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Marlins are just 4-32 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Marlins are just 9-141 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Pirates are just 38-45 (.458) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Pirates are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,424 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins hitters have 664 strikeouts in 2,424 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .639 (2,424 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .295 (2,969 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .458 (4,982 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .281 (753 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 7.14 (63.0 IP) at home this month (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Pirates pitchers have walked 212 of 2,236 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 946 of 9,810 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (1050.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Pirates vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
- James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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