Marlins vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 24

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 24, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (44-50) are -175 favorites vs the Pirates (40-55)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (9-4), 1.75 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (3-7), 4.55 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Miami Marlins (-175) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) on Sunday, July 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Marlins vs Pirates Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 44-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 48-47 ATS.

Marlins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins-1.5 +100O 7 +100-175
Pirates +1.5 -120U 7 -120+145

Marlins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+15.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 37 games at home (+14.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games at home (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+10.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 41% ROI)

Pirates vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +825 0.5 -3000
Kevin Newman 0.5 +1000 0.5

Pirates vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Cal Mitchell 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Josh VanMeter 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Kevin Newman 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Pirates vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Kevin Newman 0.5 +320 0.5 -550

Pirates vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mitch Keller 4.5 +120 4.5 -175
Sandy Alcantara 5.5 -165 5.5 +115
Sandy Alcantara 6.5 +110 6.5 -160
Mitch Keller 3.5 -175 3.5 +120
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 22 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+9.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.05 Units / 25% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-50 against the Run Line (-11.45 Units / -9.2% ROI).

  • 44-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.7 Units / -9.35% ROI
  • 45-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -3.76% ROI
  • 45-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -4% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 48-47 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -4.49% ROI).

  • 40-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 1.36% ROI
  • 39-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.3 Units / -14.73% ROI
  • 50-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.9 Units / 6.53% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 13% (19/147) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (64/363) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (87/147) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OPS of just .323 (266 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .472 — 98th Percentile.

Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .426 (158-for-371) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of just .077 (26 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .392 (406 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .305 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .405 (163-for-402) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Marlins are 28-4 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

The Marlins are just 6-17 (.261) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

The Marlins are just 4-32 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.

The Marlins are just 9-141 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Pirates are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Pirates are just 38-45 (.458) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Pirates are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,424 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters have 664 strikeouts in 2,424 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .639 (2,424 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .295 (2,969 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .458 (4,982 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .281 (753 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 7.14 (63.0 IP) at home this month (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.

Pirates pitchers have walked 212 of 2,236 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 946 of 9,810 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (1050.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Pirates vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
  • Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
  • James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.