- The Marlins (45-51) are -115 favorites vs the Reds (37-58)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (6-5), 3.13 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (3-11), 5.77 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Miami Marlins (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 45-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 45-50 ATS.
Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 +100 | -115 |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -120 | -105 |
Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 72.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+14.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+19.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 39 of his last 62 games (+19.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 53 games (+14.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Papierski | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Papierski | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Papierski | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
| Hunter Greene | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 51 away games (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 76 games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 67 games (+12.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 69 games (+7.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 79 games (+7.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-52 against the Run Line (-14.1 Units / -11.09% ROI).
- 45-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.7 Units / -9.14% ROI
- 47-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -1.79% ROI
- 45-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -5.87% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 45-50 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -9.48% ROI).
- 37-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.7 Units / -10.57% ROI
- 52-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 5.35% ROI
- 42-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.55 Units / -14.84% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (74/179) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (137/349) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (254/858) against Pablo Lopez this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 87th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .268 (11-for-41) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 83rd Percentile.
Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has thrown 291 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .529 (18-for-34) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .278 — first Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .823 (51 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .422 — first Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .853 (29 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .435 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins are just 5-33 (.132) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Marlins are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Reds are just 16-29 (.356) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Reds are just 3-49 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Reds are just 21-29 (.420) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 674 strikeouts in 2,450 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .599 (754 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (754 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .117 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (17 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Reds hitters are slugging just .382 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Reds are batting just .239 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 36% on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 50 double plays in 744 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have walked 46 of 363 batters (13%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 367 of 3,687 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 984 of 9,886 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
- James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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