Marlins vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 26

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 26, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (45-51) are -115 favorites vs the Reds (37-58)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (6-5), 3.13 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (3-11), 5.77 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Miami Marlins (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Marlins vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 45-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 45-50 ATS.

Marlins vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins-1.5 +135O 8.5 +100-115
Reds +1.5 -165U 8.5 -120-105

Marlins vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 72.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+14.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.15 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+19.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 39 of his last 62 games (+19.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 53 games (+14.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)

Reds vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Joey Votto 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Jonathan India 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Papierski 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Reds vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Joey Votto 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Jonathan India 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Papierski 0.5 -120 0.5 -115

Reds vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Joey Votto 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jonathan India 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Papierski 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Reds vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez 5.5 -155 5.5 +110
Hunter Greene 6.5 +110 6.5 -160
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 51 away games (+6.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 away games (+5.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 76 games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 67 games (+12.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 69 games (+7.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 79 games (+7.30 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 44-52 against the Run Line (-14.1 Units / -11.09% ROI).

  • 45-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.7 Units / -9.14% ROI
  • 47-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -1.79% ROI
  • 45-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -5.87% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 45-50 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -9.48% ROI).

  • 37-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.7 Units / -10.57% ROI
  • 52-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 5.35% ROI
  • 42-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.55 Units / -14.84% ROI

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (74/179) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (137/349) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (254/858) against Pablo Lopez this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 87th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .268 (11-for-41) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 83rd Percentile.

Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hunter Greene has thrown 291 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .529 (18-for-34) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .278 — first Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .823 (51 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .422 — first Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .853 (29 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .435 — second Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Marlins are just 5-33 (.132) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Marlins are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Reds are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Reds are just 16-29 (.356) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Reds are just 3-49 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Reds are just 21-29 (.420) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

Marlins hitters have 674 strikeouts in 2,450 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .599 (754 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (754 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

The Reds are batting just .117 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (17 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.

Reds hitters are slugging just .382 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Reds are batting just .239 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 36% on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .236.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 50 double plays in 744 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 46 of 363 batters (13%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 367 of 3,687 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 984 of 9,886 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
  • James Yacabonis (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.