Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 16

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 16, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (71-46) are -150 favorites vs the Mets (75-41)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (10-3), 3.42 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (5-5), 4.25 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSO

The New York Mets (+125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-150) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 75-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 61-56 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -155O 8.5 +100+125
Braves -1.5 +125U 8.5 -120-150

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 55 away games (+14.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 44 away games (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 37 games at home (+18.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 61 of his last 105 games (+17.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 61 of his last 103 games (+15.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 67 games (+13.40 Units / 11% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Matt Olson 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Michael Harris 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Ronald Acuna 0.5 +280 0.5 -450

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Matt Olson 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Michael Harris 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Ronald Acuna 1.5 +170 1.5 -250

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +100 0.5 -140
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Matt Olson 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Michael Harris 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Ronald Acuna 0.5 +125 0.5 -185

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Charlie Morton 5.5 -160 5.5 +110
Taijuan Walker 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 116 games (+20.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 116 games (+16.42 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 116 games (+14.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 78 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 91 games (+19.22 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 67 games (+19.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-52 against the Run Line (+14.8 Units / 10.52% ROI).

  • 75-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.3 Units / 11.45% ROI
  • 59-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 2.88% ROI
  • 50-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -11.27% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 61-56 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.18% ROI).

  • 71-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 3.34% ROI
  • 59-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 2.24% ROI
  • 51-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.8 Units / -10.75% ROI

Hitters have chased just 108 of Taijuan Walker’s 484 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Taijuan Walker has a strikeout rate of just 12% (10 SO in 87 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (114/492) against Taijuan Walker on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 60 of Taijuan Walker’s 269 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 32% — third Percentile.

Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (21/55) against Charlie Morton on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Charlie Morton has a strikeout rate of 27% (141 SO in 516 PAs) this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 85th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (456/1,036) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (295/517) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 26-5 (.839) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

The Mets are 34-7 (.829) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Mets are just 3-29 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Mets are 34-5 (.872) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 9-2 (.818) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 30-3 (.909) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Braves are 38-22 (.633) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.

The Braves are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .269 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,037 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 62% at home since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Braves hitters are slugging .682 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .558.

Braves hitters are slugging .503 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Braves hitters are slugging .442 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Braves hitters are slugging .316 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have walked 63 of 1,037 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
  • Max Fried (Braves): Head, D7
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Illness, D10
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tomás Nido (Mets): Illness, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, Day-to-Day
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.