Mets vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (52-35) are -130 favorites vs the Mets (53-33)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (5-1), 2.26 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (9-2), 2.51 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The New York Mets (+110) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-130) on Monday, July 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 53-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 45-42 ATS.

Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -200O 7 +105+110
Braves -1.5 +165U 7 -125-130

Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 65.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.55 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.25 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 73 games (+26.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 45 of his last 75 games (+17.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 48 of his last 72 games (+16.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 46 of his last 73 games (+15.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+15.50 Units / 50% ROI)

Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Matt Olson 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Michael Harris 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Matt Olson 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Michael Harris 0.5 -140 0.5 -105

Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Matt Olson 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Michael Harris 0.5 +280 0.5 -450

Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Fried 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
Max Scherzer 6.5 -150 6.5 +105
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 86 games (+12.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+10.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+9.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 86 games (+7.62 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 86 games (+6.20 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 61 games (+24.17 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 37 games (+16.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 54 games (+12.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+9.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 46-40 against the Run Line (+6.2 Units / 6.02% ROI).

  • 53-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +12 Units / 9.9% ROI
  • 45-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 5.22% ROI
  • 36-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -13.77% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-42 against the Run Line (-0.45 Units / -0.41% ROI).

  • 52-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 2.7% ROI
  • 42-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -4.17% ROI
  • 42-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -4.39% ROI

Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .215 (452 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.

Max Scherzer has struck out 37% (167/453) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .182 (79-for-434) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 35% (262/749) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .173 (13 Total Bases / 75 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — 100th Percentile.

Max Fried has walked 17 of 425 batters (4%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (125 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (146 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 39-4 (.907) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

The Mets are 46-4 (.920) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .887.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 22-17 (.564) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Braves are 29-9 (.763) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .282 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

The Mets have scored first in 74% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have a swing rate of 50% against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 58% on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Braves hitters have 223 extra-base hits out of 521 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .729 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.

Braves hitters have 265 extra-base hits out of 628 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Braves hitters are slugging .445 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.