- The Braves are -165 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Michael Vasil, – ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster, 0.71 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSE
The New York Mets (+140) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-165) on Thursday, March 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in North Port.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Mets vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Mets are 5-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 9-9 ATS.
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -140 | O 9.5 -110 | +140 |
| Braves | -1.5 +115 | U 9.5 -110 | -165 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 6-12 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -29.71% ROI).
- 5-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.1 Units / -52.61% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 8.79% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -15.48% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 9-9 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -3.21% ROI).
- 10-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 6.51% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 6.85% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -14.75% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 18% (36/197) against Jackson Stephens last season — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — fifth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of 39% (29/75) against Jackson Stephens last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Jackson Stephens struck out just 16% (17/107) of left-handed batters he faced last season — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Jackson Stephens allowed an OBP of .383 (107 PA’s) vs left-handed batters last season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — sixth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are 44-11 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .333 (6,217 PA’s) last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .443 against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters slugged .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (1,216 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .753 (4,444 PA’s) against RHP last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .185 against Braves pitchers with the shift last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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