- The Braves are -190 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mets / Braves TV Channel: BSSO | SNY
The New York Mets (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Wednesday, September 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Mets are 87-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 73-84 ATS.
Mets vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 9-3, 3.10 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 18-3, 2.41 ERA
Mets vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -115 | +150 |
| Braves | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -105 | -185 |
Mets vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 60.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+28.00 Units / 400% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+15.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- David Peterson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 34 of his last 41 games (+22.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 37 games (+21.40 Units / 58% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+14.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+14.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+13.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 98 games (+21.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 99 games (+16.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 38 away games (+12.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 101 games (+11.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+8.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 143 games (+36.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+3.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+3.40 Units / 17% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 81-76 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 1.43% ROI).
- 87-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.5 Units / 4.29% ROI
- 78-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -0.81% ROI
- 72-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -7.46% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 73-84 against the Run Line (-14.9 Units / -7.8% ROI).
- 86-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.4 Units / -8.36% ROI
- 58-93 when betting on the total runs Over for -43.25 Units / -25.23% ROI
- 93-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +29 Units / 16.65% ROI
Braves vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Braves vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Braves vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 54% (100/184) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an OBP of .303 (502 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.1 MPH on the 170 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 56% (69/123) against David Peterson on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
32 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 32% (225 SO in 702 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (46-for-239) against Chris Sale when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 96th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 33% (87 SO in 261 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 7-57 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are just 14-67 (.173) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mets are 15-188 (.074) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 242-63 (.793) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Braves are 37-87 (.298) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Braves are 35-63 (.357) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (12,811 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Mets are batting .244 with two outs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .323 (9,241 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Mets have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .452 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Braves hitters are slugging .449 against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Braves have barrels in 7% of PA’s since last season (911/12,142) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (512/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 564 of 5,913 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mets have won 83% of games in which their opponents scored first this month (21 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 118 of 1,403 batters (8%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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