- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Brewers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mets / Brewers TV Channel: ESPN
The New York Mets (+110) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-130) on Thursday, October 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Mets are 90-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 83-81 ATS.
Mets vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 10-10, 3.74 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Tobias Myers 9-6, 3.00 ERA
Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -115 | +110 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -130 |
Mets vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 105 games (+20.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 60 of their last 106 games (+14.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 away games (+7.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 83 away games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 away games (+4.32 Units / 15% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 94 of their last 164 games (+11.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 83 of their last 160 games (+10.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 92 of their last 164 games (+9.77 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 90 of their last 164 games (+8.50 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 71 games at home (+4.95 Units / 6% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 84-80 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 0.53% ROI).
- 90-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 3.5% ROI
- 83-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.55% ROI
- 76-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -7.78% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 83-81 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -1.05% ROI).
- 94-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.5 Units / 5.49% ROI
- 84-70 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.95 Units / 4.43% ROI
- 70-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.45 Units / -12.38% ROI
Brewers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brewers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tobias Myers (MIL) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,306/2,224) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,676/2,819) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (451/786) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 49% (469/961) when ahead in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tobias Myers has allowed a slugging percentage of .711 (32 Total Bases / 45 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .403 — first Percentile.
Tobias Myers has allowed an OBP of just .220 (123 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .316 — 98th Percentile.
Tobias Myers has allowed an OPS of just .434 (124 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .727 — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (59/198) against Tobias Myers this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets are 8-59 (.119) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are just 15-67 (.183) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mets are just 65-13 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Mets are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are 51-129 (.283) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Brewers are 37-84 (.306) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Brewers are 49-5 (.907) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Brewers are 185-139 (.571) since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .256 (9,888 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mets hitters are slugging .440 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Mets hitters are slugging .627 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,763/18,376 PA’s) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 23% on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have walked 121 of 1,445 batters (8%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.17 (933.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Brewers have allowed 3.97 runs per game (1,287/324) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.62 (1478.0 IP) at home since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Brewers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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