- The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Mets vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Brewers TV Channel: FOX
The New York Mets (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Mets are 87-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 81-79 ATS.
Mets vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 10-9, 3.73 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Jared Koenig 9-4, 2.52 ERA
Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | O 8 +100 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -120 | -115 |
Mets vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+28.00 Units / 400% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+16.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+11.55 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 games (+33.80 Units / 178% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+20.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 43 games (+15.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 62% ROI)
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Walks Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.90 Units / 41% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+20.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 100 games (+15.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 away games (+11.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 102 games (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 away games (+7.80 Units / 22% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 92 of their last 160 games (+11.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 89 of their last 160 games (+10.85 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 81 of their last 156 games (+10.35 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 89 of their last 160 games (+8.12 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 67 games at home (+4.75 Units / 6% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 81-77 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 0.92% ROI).
- 87-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.68% ROI
- 79-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.23% ROI
- 72-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.7 Units / -8.06% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 81-79 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -1.17% ROI).
- 92-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.95 Units / 5.84% ROI
- 82-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.15 Units / 4.66% ROI
- 68-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.35 Units / -12.63% ROI
Brewers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Brewers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Jared Koenig (MIL) | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,259/2,143) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (432/756) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 49% (451/924) when ahead in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,621/2,727) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (10/69) against Jared Koenig this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Jared Koenig has walked 5 of 17 right-handed batters (29%) in his last five appearances — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Jared Koenig has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (123/258) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Jared Koenig has a strike rate of 81% (140/174) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 69% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets are 7-57 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 16-8 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are just 64-13 (.831) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Mets are 73-21 (.777) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are 37-83 (.308) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Brewers are 51-128 (.285) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Brewers are 49-5 (.907) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Brewers are 94-65 (.591) at home since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 56% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Mets are batting .284 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mets hitters are slugging .631 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,202/12,184 PA’s) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 569 of 5,951 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 259 of 2,823 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mets have won 71% of games in which their opponents scored first this month (22 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (1608.0 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.17 (933.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Brewers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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