- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Brewers
- Mets vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Brewers TV Channel: SNY | BSWI
The New York Mets (-120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+100) on Sunday, September 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Mets are 87-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 82-79 ATS.
Mets vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 9-3, 3.10 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 12-5, 4.18 ERA
Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -105 | -120 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -115 | +100 |
Mets vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+27.00 Units / 338% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+13.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- David Peterson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.10 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games (+32.80 Units / 164% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+20.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 44 games (+14.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 57% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.55 Units / 52% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 100 games (+19.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 101 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+12.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+9.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 away games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 93 of their last 161 games (+12.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 90 of their last 161 games (+11.85 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 81 of their last 157 games (+9.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 90 of their last 161 games (+9.12 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+5.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 81-78 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 0.42% ROI).
- 87-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 3.12% ROI
- 79-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -0.86% ROI
- 73-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -7.42% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 82-79 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -0.69% ROI).
- 93-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.95 Units / 6.3% ROI
- 82-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.05 Units / 4% ROI
- 69-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.35 Units / -11.99% ROI
Brewers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Brewers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.1 MPH on the 170 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 51% (86/170) against David Peterson on breaking pitches since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .405 (15-for-37) against David Peterson in close and late situations since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.
David Peterson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 26.0 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 88.2.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (228/1,191) against Colin Rea this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of .484 (122 Total Bases / 252 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — sixth Percentile.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 18% (50 SO in 276 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 19% (130 SO in 683 PAs) this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 16th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Mets are just 14-67 (.173) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Mets are 7-57 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 73-21 (.777) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Mets are just 61-16 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Brewers are 37-83 (.308) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Brewers are 146-11 (.930) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Brewers are 124-89 (.582) after a loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Brewers are 36-27 (.571) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .773 (1,634 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .330 (1,634 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters are slugging .443 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
The Mets have been successful on 56% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,762/18,343 PA’s) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 573 of 5,988 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 259 of 2,831 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 2.98 (468.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.64 (1437.1 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.76 (1411.1 IP) on the road since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Brewers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
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