- The Mets (62-37) are -200 favorites vs the Marlins (47-53)
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (10-4), 4.06 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: – (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The New York Mets (-200) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+165) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 62-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-55 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -120 | O 8 -110 | -200 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | U 8 -110 | +165 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 49 away games (+15.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+13.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+10.25 Units / 82% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+9.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+9.20 Units / 12% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 44 games at home (+14.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Joey Wendle | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
| Nick Neidert | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 99 games (+15.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 99 games (+8.17 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 99 games (+5.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+10.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+2.05 Units / 3% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 52-47 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 4.92% ROI).
- 62-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.7 Units / 11.14% ROI
- 50-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.65 Units / 2.42% ROI
- 43-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.6 Units / -10.69% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-55 against the Run Line (-17.35 Units / -13.05% ROI).
- 47-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.55 Units / -8.7% ROI
- 49-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -1.94% ROI
- 47-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -5.86% ROI
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .518 (29-for-56) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .360 (54-for-150) against Carlos Carrasco versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .591 (39 Total Bases / 66 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .361 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .348 (23-for-66) against Carlos Carrasco’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — third Percentile.
–: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (119/400) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .433 (65-for-150) against Trevor Rogers in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.7 MPH against his curves since the start of last season (83 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 87.2
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 22% of the time (212/949) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total CH; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 44-4 (.917) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Mets are 27-7 (.794) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Mets are 53-15 (.779) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mets are 25-12 (.676) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Marlins are just 6-35 (.146) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Marlins are 39-7 (.848) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Marlins are just 10-143 (.065) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .265 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .362 (427 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 63% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 674 strikeouts in 2,450 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (754 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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