Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 30, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (62-37) are -200 favorites vs the Marlins (47-53)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (10-4), 4.06 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The New York Mets (-200) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+165) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Miami.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 62-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-55 ATS.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 -120O 8 -110-200
Marlins +1.5 +100U 8 -110+165

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 49 away games (+15.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+13.90 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Taijuan Walker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+10.25 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+9.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+9.20 Units / 12% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 44 games at home (+14.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.15 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JJ Bleday 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Joey Wendle 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Lewin Diaz 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JJ Bleday 0.5 -155 0.5 +105
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Joey Wendle 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Lewin Diaz 0.5 -175 0.5 +125

Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JJ Bleday 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Joey Wendle 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Lewin Diaz 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
Nick Neidert 3.5 +110 3.5 -155
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 99 games (+15.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 99 games (+8.17 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 99 games (+5.85 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+10.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+2.05 Units / 3% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 52-47 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 4.92% ROI).

  • 62-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.7 Units / 11.14% ROI
  • 50-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.65 Units / 2.42% ROI
  • 43-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.6 Units / -10.69% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-55 against the Run Line (-17.35 Units / -13.05% ROI).

  • 47-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.55 Units / -8.7% ROI
  • 49-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -1.94% ROI
  • 47-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -5.86% ROI

Opponents are hitting .518 (29-for-56) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .360 (54-for-150) against Carlos Carrasco versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .591 (39 Total Bases / 66 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .361 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .348 (23-for-66) against Carlos Carrasco’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — third Percentile.

: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (119/400) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .433 (65-for-150) against Trevor Rogers in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.7 MPH against his curves since the start of last season (83 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 87.2

Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 22% of the time (212/949) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total CH; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 44-4 (.917) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Mets are 27-7 (.794) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Mets are 53-15 (.779) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets are 25-12 (.676) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Marlins are just 6-35 (.146) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.

The Marlins are 39-7 (.848) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.

The Marlins are just 10-143 (.065) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .265 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .362 (427 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .325.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 63% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Marlins hitters have 674 strikeouts in 2,450 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .638 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (754 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.