- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer, – ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara, – ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 6-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 7-13 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 7 -110 | -125 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | U 7 -110 | +105 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 57.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- player high – away
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- player high – home
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 8-12 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -17.01% ROI).
- 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.1 Units / -44.73% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 7.64% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.15 Units / -14% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 7-13 against the Run Line (-8.8 Units / -34.31% ROI).
- 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -31.08% ROI
- 5-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.2 Units / -42.01% ROI
- 13-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.45 Units / 33.56% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters had a groundball rate of just 16% (10/61) against Max Scherzer when he was behind in the count last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 33% (409 SO in 1,258 PAs) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has struck out 35% (225/648) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (344/1,010) against Max Scherzer since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara had second base stolen on him 24 times last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (1,027/1,420) against right-handed batters last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara had a strike rate of 72% (679/939) in two strike counts last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (95/534) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 51-7 (.879) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Mets are 44-11 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Mets are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 51-14 (.785) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Marlins are just 9-53 (.145) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Marlins are 19-3 (.864) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Marlins are just 9-38 (.191) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mets hitters struck out just 844 times in 4,294 PA’s (20%) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .346 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 174 of 2,834 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D15
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D15
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