- The Mets are -115 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-105) on Friday, March 31, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 0-1 ATS.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -105 | -115 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -115 | -105 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 67.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.95 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Pham | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Pham | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pham | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -165 |
| David Peterson | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 89 of their last 166 games (+11.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 166 games (+11.15 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 163 games (+5.10 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 1-0 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 140% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 76.92% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 0-1 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson had a strike rate of just 59% (875/1,491) against right-handed batters in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 37% (112/304) against David Peterson on changeups in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 52% — first Percentile.
David Peterson threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (193/368) of opposing batters in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 53% (239/448) of right-handed hitters since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo had a strike rate of just 59% (316/534) in two strike counts in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 32% (102/319) against Jesus Luzardo with two-strikes in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Opponents batted just .152 (30-for-197) against Jesus Luzardo on the road in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .191 (69-for-361) against Jesus Luzardo in 2022 — 11th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 94th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets were 89-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets are just 35-61 (.365) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Mets were 5-54 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Mets were 100-52 (.658) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 104-18 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins are just 115-75 (.605) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Marlins are just 112-10 (.918) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Marlins are just 132-160 (.452) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters struck out just 844 times in 4,294 PA’s (20%) against RHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted .186 with two-strikes in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .341 (2,822 PA’s) when leading off an inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (3,012 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Marlins batted just .208 against LHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Marlins are batting just .219 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Marlins won just 24% of games in which their opponents scored first in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D15
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D15
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