Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 19

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 19, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Phillies (65-52) are -120 favorites vs the Mets (76-43)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (10-7), 3.26 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (8-9), 3.06 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBC 10

The New York Mets (+100) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-120) on Friday, August 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Mets vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 76-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 61-56 ATS.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -200O 7.5 +100+100
Phillies -1.5 +165U 7.5 -120-120

Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 71.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 37 games (+18.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 36 of his last 58 away games (+13.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+11.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 41 games at home (+15.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+10.60 Units / 26% ROI)

Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Bradley Zimmer 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Bryson Stott 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jean Segura 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Bradley Zimmer 0.5 +100 0.5 -140
Bryson Stott 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Jean Segura 0.5 -250 0.5 +160

Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Bradley Zimmer 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Bryson Stott 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Jean Segura 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 6.5 +115 6.5 -165
Chris Bassitt 5.5 -150 5.5 +105
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 119 games (+15.42 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 85 games (+6.85 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games (+4.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 67 games (+18.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 64 of their last 112 games (+13.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 66 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 52 games (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.95 Units / 35% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 65-53 against the Run Line (+14.6 Units / 10.2% ROI).

  • 76-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.3 Units / 11.29% ROI
  • 60-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 2.71% ROI
  • 51-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.45 Units / -11.19% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 61-56 against the Run Line (+4.15 Units / 2.93% ROI).

  • 65-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 3.09% ROI
  • 56-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -3.3% ROI
  • 55-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.25 Units / -4.86% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (64/374) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (50/292) against Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has allowed an OPS of just .560 (311 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .685 — 93rd Percentile.

Chris Bassitt has allowed a slugging percentage of just .302 (88 Total Bases / 291 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .391 — 95th Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 12.6 (88/7) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.8 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .237 (18-for-76) against Aaron Nola on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .331 — 98th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of just .168 (19 Total Bases / 113 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .362 — 96th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 28% (165 SO in 591 PAs) this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 87th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Mets are 27-5 (.844) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Mets are 40-19 (.678) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Mets are 35-7 (.833) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

The Mets are 66-5 (.930) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Phillies are 13-39 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Phillies are 11-39 (.220) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Phillies are 21-3 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Phillies are 33-26 (.559) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .265 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .751 (3,104 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Mets hitters have 223 extra-base hits out of 692 total hits (just 32%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Phillies are batting .353 against LHP this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .411 (129 PA’s) against LHP this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .307.

Phillies hitters are slugging .586 against LHP this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Phillies hitters are slugging .596 at home this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have walked 156 of 2,447 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 157 of 2,465 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (2,818 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Ankle, D10
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D15
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tomás Nido (Mets): Illness, D10
  • Taijuan Walker (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.