- The Rays are -120 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mets / Rays TV Channel: FOX
The New York Mets (+100) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-120) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Mets are 16-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 12-21 ATS.
Mets vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell 1-2, 3.28 ERA
Mets vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -225 | O 7.5 -110 | +100 |
| Rays | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -110 | -120 |
Mets vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+10.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+10.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.35 Units / 73% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+15.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games at home (+10.50 Units / 117% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+17.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 58 games (+10.19 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games (+7.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.26 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 16-16 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 1.9% ROI).
- 16-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.43% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -4.83% ROI
- 15-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -4.41% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 12-21 against the Run Line (-9.1 Units / -22.75% ROI).
- 15-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -21.88% ROI
- 19-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 10.11% ROI
- 14-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.05 Units / -19.32% ROI
Rays vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Rays vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Harold Ramirez (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Rays vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Amed Rosario (TB) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Littell has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 82% (80/97) of opposing batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (34/101) against Zack Littell this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (34/101) against Zack Littell this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
4 of Zack Littell’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 2nd most among among AL Starters; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mets are just 3-84 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are 165-2 (.988) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 13-71 (.155) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Mets are 153-15 (.911) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .867.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Rays are just 12-31 (.279) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Rays are just 5-17 (.227) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Rays are 18-7 (.720) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 64-41 (.610) after a home win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 47 strikeouts in 278 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have put 43% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets hitters are averaging just 3.63 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Mets are batting .275 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 7 strikeouts in 11 PA’s (64%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have put just 17% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Rays hitters have 160 strikeouts in 480 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 142 of 1,235 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 63 of 499 batters (13%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have allowed three-ball counts to 25% of batters they faced (312/1,235 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 926 of 13,192 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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