Nationals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 8

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 08, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (49-35) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (30-55)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (5-5), 4.29 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (4-3), 4.34 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Washington Nationals (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).

The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 30-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 44-40 ATS.

Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+2.5 -135O 9 -105+200
Braves -2.5 +110U 9 -115-250

Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 36 away games (+7.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 46 of his last 70 games (+24.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 69 games (+17.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 43 of his last 72 games (+16.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+16.50 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 70 games (+15.20 Units / 17% ROI)

Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Matt Olson 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Matt Olson 1.5 +160 1.5 -250

Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Matt Olson 0.5 -105 0.5 -135

Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Erick Fedde 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
Charlie Morton 5.5 -160 5.5 +110
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 away games (+2.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+1.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 12 away games (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 58 games (+21.17 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 34 games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 51 games (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-50 against the Run Line (-23.1 Units / -21.78% ROI).

  • 30-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.85 Units / -17.77% ROI
  • 42-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -1.06% ROI
  • 39-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -7.26% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 44-40 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 0.79% ROI).

  • 49-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.57% ROI
  • 41-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -3.02% ROI
  • 40-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -5.63% ROI

Hitters have chased just 48 of Erick Fedde’s 228 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (747/1,421) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Erick Fedde has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (389/711) of opposing batters since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 42% of Erick Fedde’s pitches (617/1,472) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.

Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (69/228) against Charlie Morton this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (30/87) against Charlie Morton in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (922/2,125) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (36/94) against Charlie Morton on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 9-50 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 14-31 (.311) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Nationals are just 16-24 (.400) on the road this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.

The Nationals are just 6-147 (.039) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 27-18 (.600) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Braves are 22-17 (.564) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.

The Braves are 19-3 (.864) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .669.

The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Nationals hitters have just 188 strikeouts in 1,050 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,897 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 241 double plays in 1,829 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .358 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Braves hitters have 222 extra-base hits out of 513 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .735 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.

Braves hitters have 94 extra-base hits out of 204 total hits (46%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .511 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Nationals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.69 (337.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Luis García (Nationals): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.