- The Braves (49-35) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (30-55)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (5-5), 4.29 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (4-3), 4.34 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Washington Nationals (+200) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 30-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 44-40 ATS.
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -135 | O 9 -105 | +200 |
| Braves | -2.5 +110 | U 9 -115 | -250 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 36 away games (+7.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 46 of his last 70 games (+24.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 69 games (+17.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 43 of his last 72 games (+16.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+16.50 Units / 59% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 70 games (+15.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Dansby Swanson | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
| Charlie Morton | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 away games (+2.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 away games (+1.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 12 away games (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 58 games (+21.17 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 34 games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 51 games (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-50 against the Run Line (-23.1 Units / -21.78% ROI).
- 30-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.85 Units / -17.77% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -1.06% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -7.26% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 44-40 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 0.79% ROI).
- 49-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.57% ROI
- 41-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -3.02% ROI
- 40-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -5.63% ROI
Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 48 of Erick Fedde’s 228 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (747/1,421) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Erick Fedde has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (389/711) of opposing batters since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 42% of Erick Fedde’s pitches (617/1,472) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (69/228) against Charlie Morton this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (30/87) against Charlie Morton in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (922/2,125) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (36/94) against Charlie Morton on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 9-50 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 14-31 (.311) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 16-24 (.400) on the road this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Nationals are just 6-147 (.039) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 27-18 (.600) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Braves are 22-17 (.564) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Braves are 19-3 (.864) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .669.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 188 strikeouts in 1,050 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,897 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 241 double plays in 1,829 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .358 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have 222 extra-base hits out of 513 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .735 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.
Braves hitters have 94 extra-base hits out of 204 total hits (46%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .511 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.69 (337.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Luis García (Nationals): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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