- The Cubs (44-64) are -200 favorites vs the Nationals (36-75)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-4), 4.20 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (3-5), 3.99 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Washington Nationals (+165) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-200) on Tuesday, August 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 36-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 55-53 ATS.
Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | O 7.5 -105 | +165 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -115 | -200 |
Nationals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nelson Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 41 games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 away games (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 31 games (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 54 games (+16.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+14.40 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 37 of his last 59 games (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 37 games (+13.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Cubs vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -300 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Cubs vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -160 |
Cubs vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
| Paolo Espino | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 59 of their last 98 games (+20.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 90 games (+7.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 18 games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+12.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 46-65 against the Run Line (-27.55 Units / -20.24% ROI).
- 36-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.75 Units / -20.6% ROI
- 55-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 0.89% ROI
- 49-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.75 Units / -8.87% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 55-53 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -4.79% ROI).
- 44-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.15 Units / -13.33% ROI
- 46-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.5 Units / -13.01% ROI
- 56-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.7 Units / 4.8% ROI
Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .139 (5-for-36) against Paolo Espino on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .335 — 100th Percentile.
Paolo Espino has averaged 88.5 MPH on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.
Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of .733 (22 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .427 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .225 (18-for-80) against Paolo Espino on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 99th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .113 (11 GB hits out of 97 GBs) against Marcus Stroman this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (675/1,859) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .292 (7-for-24) against Marcus Stroman with two-strikes — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .164 — fifth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 56% (89/159) against Marcus Stroman when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 17-40 (.298) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Nationals are just 11-68 (.139) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Nationals are just 36-63 (.364) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 105-16 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 21-31 (.404) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Cubs are just 17-52 (.246) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 17-98 (.148) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Cubs are just 7-33 (.175) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .341 (3,131 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 264 double plays in 2,007 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .164 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .344.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 322 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have 678 strikeouts in 2,707 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Cubs are batting just .152 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 6.01 (451.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .309 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Right Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Clippard (Nationals): Groin, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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