Nationals vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 9

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 09, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cubs (44-64) are -200 favorites vs the Nationals (36-75)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-4), 4.20 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (3-5), 3.99 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Washington Nationals (+165) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-200) on Tuesday, August 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Nationals vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 36-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 55-53 ATS.

Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -125O 7.5 -105+165
Cubs -1.5 +105U 7.5 -115-200

Nationals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nelson Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 41 games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 away games (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 31 games (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 54 games (+16.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+14.40 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 37 of his last 59 games (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 37 games (+13.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.85 Units / 38% ROI)

Cubs vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Ian Happ 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Nick Madrigal 0.5 +1300 0.5
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Cubs vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Ian Happ 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Nick Madrigal 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Nico Hoerner 1.5 +195 1.5 -300
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 -185 0.5 +125

Cubs vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Ian Happ 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Nick Madrigal 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +110 0.5 -160

Cubs vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcus Stroman 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
Paolo Espino 3.5 +100 3.5 -140
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 59 of their last 98 games (+20.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 90 games (+7.35 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 18 games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+12.55 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 46-65 against the Run Line (-27.55 Units / -20.24% ROI).

  • 36-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.75 Units / -20.6% ROI
  • 55-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 0.89% ROI
  • 49-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.75 Units / -8.87% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 55-53 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -4.79% ROI).

  • 44-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.15 Units / -13.33% ROI
  • 46-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.5 Units / -13.01% ROI
  • 56-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.7 Units / 4.8% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .139 (5-for-36) against Paolo Espino on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .335 — 100th Percentile.

Paolo Espino has averaged 88.5 MPH on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.

Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of .733 (22 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .427 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .225 (18-for-80) against Paolo Espino on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 99th Percentile.

Marcus Stroman: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .113 (11 GB hits out of 97 GBs) against Marcus Stroman this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.

Marcus Stroman has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (675/1,859) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .292 (7-for-24) against Marcus Stroman with two-strikes — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .164 — fifth Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 56% (89/159) against Marcus Stroman when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 96th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Nationals are just 17-40 (.298) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Nationals are just 11-68 (.139) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Nationals are just 36-63 (.364) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Nationals are just 105-16 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Cubs are just 21-31 (.404) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Cubs are just 17-52 (.246) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Cubs are just 17-98 (.148) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Cubs are just 7-33 (.175) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .341 (3,131 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 264 double plays in 2,007 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .164 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .344.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 322 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have 678 strikeouts in 2,707 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Cubs are batting just .152 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 6.01 (451.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .309 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Cubs vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Erick Fedde (Nationals): Right Shoulder, D15
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Tyler Clippard (Nationals): Groin, D15
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.