Nationals vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 19

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FILE - Chicago Cubs' Cody Bellinger watches his home run during the third inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, July 7, 2023, in New York. There are still some premium free agents available for Major League Baseball teams as the calendar nears March. Two-time Cy Young Winner Blake Snell, six-time All-Star J.D. Martinez and former MVP Cody Bellinger are among the players who haven't found a home. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II, File)
(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II, File)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 19, 2024, 11:00 AM
  • The Cubs are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Nationals / Cubs TV Channel: MASN | MARQ

The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.

This season, the Nationals are 68-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 74-78 ATS.

Nationals vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 6-13, 5.47 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 7-5, 3.29 ERA

Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -150O 8.5 -105+140
Cubs -1.5 +125U 8.5 -115-165

Nationals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Joey Gallo has hit the Walks Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+11.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 20 away games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Christian Bethancour has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+22.00 Units / 147% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+16.65 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 36 games (+15.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+13.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+12.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 25 games (+27.50 Units / 110% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 25 games (+25.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 144 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 58 games at home (+16.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 65 games (+9.32 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+8.31 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.55 Units / 21% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 84-68 against the Run Line (+4.93 Units / 2.47% ROI).

  • 68-84 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 0.92% ROI
  • 71-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -5.09% ROI
  • 73-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.97 Units / -3.54% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 74-78 against the Run Line (-17.2 Units / -8.42% ROI).

  • 77-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.43 Units / -0.76% ROI
  • 72-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -6.38% ROI
  • 75-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.87 Units / -2.32% ROI

Cubs vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) 0.5 +260 0.5 -350
Joey Gallo (WAS) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Ian Happ (CHC) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Dansby Swanson (CHC) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650

Cubs vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Tena (WAS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
CJ Abrams (WAS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Dylan Crews (WAS) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Ian Happ (CHC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Cody Bellinger (CHC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185

Cubs vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Isaac Paredes (CHC) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Cody Bellinger (CHC) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200

Cubs vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Patrick Corbin (WAS) 4.5 -110 4.5 -120
Javier Assad (CHC) 4.5 +100 4.5 -130

Opponents are hitting .312 (239-for-765) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — fourth Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .313 (166-for-530) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — first Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 17% (95 SO in 558 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 5.45 (165.0 IP)this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.68 — third Percentile.

Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .447 (293 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: .725 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .133 (30-for-225) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .140 (35-for-250) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.

Javier Assad has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 49% (405/831) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.

The Nationals are just 59-233 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

The Nationals are just 73-120 (.378) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.

The Nationals are just 59-82 (.418) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Cubs are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.

The Cubs are 29-10 (.744) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .642.

The Cubs are 22-13 (.629) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Cubs are just 60-12 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .946 (2,163 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.

Nationals hitters have just 673 strikeouts in 3,530 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .297 (1,587 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.

The Nationals are batting just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Cubs are batting .315 on the road this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .676 (2,657 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Cubs are batting just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.

The Cubs are batting .165 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .153.

Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .343 (4,195 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.04 (2032.0 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.

Cubs pitchers have walked 49 of 455 batters (11%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 36% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 121 of 1,348 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

Cubs vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Chicago Cubs – No Injuries Reported
  • Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.