- The Cubs are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Cubs TV Channel: MASN | MARQ
The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Nationals are 68-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 74-78 ATS.
Nationals vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 6-13, 5.47 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 7-5, 3.29 ERA
Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 -105 | +140 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -115 | -165 |
Nationals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joey Gallo has hit the Walks Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+11.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 20 away games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+22.00 Units / 147% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+16.65 Units / 57% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 36 games (+15.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+13.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+12.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 25 games (+27.50 Units / 110% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 25 games (+25.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 144 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 58 games at home (+16.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 65 games (+9.32 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+8.31 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.55 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 84-68 against the Run Line (+4.93 Units / 2.47% ROI).
- 68-84 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 0.92% ROI
- 71-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -5.09% ROI
- 73-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.97 Units / -3.54% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 74-78 against the Run Line (-17.2 Units / -8.42% ROI).
- 77-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.43 Units / -0.76% ROI
- 72-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -6.38% ROI
- 75-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.87 Units / -2.32% ROI
Cubs vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Cubs vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Cubs vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Andrés Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Isaac Paredes (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Cubs vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Javier Assad (CHC) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .312 (239-for-765) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .313 (166-for-530) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 17% (95 SO in 558 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 5.45 (165.0 IP)this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.68 — third Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .447 (293 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: .725 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .133 (30-for-225) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .140 (35-for-250) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 49% (405/831) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are just 59-233 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 73-120 (.378) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Nationals are just 59-82 (.418) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are 29-10 (.744) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .642.
The Cubs are 22-13 (.629) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Cubs are just 60-12 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .946 (2,163 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.
Nationals hitters have just 673 strikeouts in 3,530 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .297 (1,587 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Nationals are batting just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .315 on the road this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .676 (2,657 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Cubs are batting just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Cubs are batting .165 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .343 (4,195 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.04 (2032.0 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 49 of 455 batters (11%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 36% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 121 of 1,348 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chicago Cubs – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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