- The Marlins (63-89) are -175 favorites vs the Nationals (52-99)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Aníbal Sánchez (2-6), 4.39 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera (6-3), 2.90 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Washington Nationals (+145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-175) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5.
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 51-99 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 72-80 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 | O 7.5 -120 | +145 |
| Marlins | –1.5 | U 7.5 +100 | -175 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 61.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 44 away games (+22.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 42 games (+18.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 45 away games (+17.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 45 away games (+14.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+13.95 Units / 37% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trevor Rogers has hit the Earned Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 54% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 away games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 77 away games (+9.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 23 away games (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 48 away games (+6.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.30 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 67-83 against the Run Line (-22.85 Units / -12.59% ROI).
- 51-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.8 Units / -12.1% ROI
- 70-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -4.89% ROI
- 71-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.3 Units / -3.23% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 72-80 against the Run Line (-19.3 Units / -9.62% ROI).
- 63-89 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.7 Units / -16.97% ROI
- 67-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -10.4% ROI
- 77-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 2.12% ROI
Aníbal Sánchez: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (11/41) against Anibal Sanchez this month (3 games) — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Anibal Sanchez has a strikeout rate of just 11% (6 SO in 55 PAs) this month (3 games) — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Anibal Sanchez has walked 7 of 55 batters (13%) this month (3 games) — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Anibal Sanchez has a strike rate of just 60% (133/221) this month (3 games) — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Edward Cabrera: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 8 of 46 right-handed batters (17%) this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 11 of 86 batters (13%) this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has allowed an OPS of 1.042 (46 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .668 — fourth Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has allowed a slugging percentage of .426 (20 Total Bases / 47 ABs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 24-50 (.324) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 16-86 (.157) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 28-49 (.364) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Nationals are just 11-185 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 62-72 (.463) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 48-13 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .483 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .559.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 291 double plays in 2,275 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters are slugging .234 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .272 (1,237 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,933 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have 808 strikeouts in 2,933 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .348 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 29% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 31% with two-strikes this month (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% this month (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Patrick Corbin (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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