- The Mets are -250 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Mets starting pitcher: Joseph Lucchesi
- Watch the game on SNY
The Washington Nationals (+195) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-250) on Thursday, April 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 9-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 13-12 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -115 | +195 |
| Mets | -1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -105 | -250 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 5 games (+5.85 Units / 103% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.60 Units / 78% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+5.50 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.50 Units / 108% ROI)
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Lucchesi | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+8.85 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+7.25 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 42% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 25 games (+1.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+0.85 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 14-9 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 19.07% ROI).
- 9-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 10% ROI
- 9-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -15.54% ROI
- 12-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 9% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 13-12 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 6.38% ROI).
- 14-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -2.3% ROI
- 10-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -19.6% ROI
- 14-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 11.76% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (328/371) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of just 3% (1 SO in 31 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (26/183) against Trevor Williams this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (11/83) against Trevor Williams this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joey Lucchesi has pitched 17.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Pete Fairbanks has the longest active streak at 29.1.
Joey Lucchesi had a first-pitch strike rate of 83% (19/23) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Joey Lucchesi has not allowed a home run in any of the last 17.1 innings he’s appeared — Shohei Ohtani has the longest active streak at 77.0.
Joey Lucchesi threw over to first base 4 times — tied for 4th most in MLB over the last week — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 114-13 (.898) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 0-111 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Nationals are just 20-106 (.159) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Nationals are just 84-47 (.641) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 1-10 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Mets are 102-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Mets are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Mets are 6-64 (.086) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 46 extra-base hits out of 195 total hits (just 24%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals hitters have just 163 strikeouts in 879 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 31 extra-base hits out of 128 total hits (just 24%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .324 against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (4,880 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .356 (829 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Mets hitters have just 461 strikeouts in 2,299 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have just 960 strikeouts in 4,880 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have walked 104 of 944 batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Left Ankle, D15
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D10
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back Spasms, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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