Nationals vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 03, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets are -300 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Cory Abbott (0-4), 5.11 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (15-7), 3.95 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Washington Nationals (+240) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-300) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).

The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 55-104 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 84-75 ATS.

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+2.5 -135O 7.5 -115+240
Mets -2.5 +110U 7.5 -105-300

Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 61.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 45 away games (+23.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 50 games (+20.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 46 away games (+18.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+16.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 46 away games (+15.90 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 60 games (+24.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 58 of his last 77 games (+20.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 46 games at home (+19.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 44 of his last 69 games (+18.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)

Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
James McCann 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -125 0.5 -115
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
James McCann 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
Jeff McNeil 1.5 +165 1.5 -250

Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
James McCann 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +135 0.5 -200

Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 5.5 +115 5.5 -165
Cory Abbott 3.5 -105 3.5 -135
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 away games (+10.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 24 away games (+10.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 24 away games (+10.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 78 away games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 92 games (+8.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 72 games at home (+21.32 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 121 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+11.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 159 games (+6.95 Units / 3% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 71-88 against the Run Line (-23.75 Units / -12.44% ROI).

  • 55-104 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.65 Units / -10.13% ROI
  • 74-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -5.47% ROI
  • 76-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -2.67% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 84-75 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 3.5% ROI).

  • 98-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 0.73% ROI
  • 84-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +9 Units / 5.12% ROI
  • 68-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.2 Units / -13.86% ROI

Cory Abbott has limited playing time.

Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .699 (58 Total Bases / 83 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .415 — 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .691 (76 Total Bases / 110 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .416 — 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.467 (103 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 1.030 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .346 (45-for-130) against Carlos Carrasco’s elevated fastball since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 0 Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 17-91 (.157) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Nationals are just 11-56 (.164) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Nationals are just 11-190 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are 83-24 (.776) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Mets are 47-34 (.580) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Mets are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 49-7 (.875) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters are slugging .234 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Nationals hitters have just 2,492 strikeouts in 12,005 PA’s (21%) since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Mets have scored first in 68% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Mets are batting .474 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.

Mets hitters have just 377 strikeouts in 1,900 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (6,063 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.27 (653.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have walked 172 of 2,798 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • Darin Ruf (Mets): Neck, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.