- The Mets are -300 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Cory Abbott (0-4), 5.11 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (15-7), 3.95 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Washington Nationals (+240) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-300) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 55-104 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 84-75 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -135 | O 7.5 -115 | +240 |
| Mets | -2.5 +110 | U 7.5 -105 | -300 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 61.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 45 away games (+23.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 50 games (+20.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 46 away games (+18.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+16.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 46 away games (+15.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 60 games (+24.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 58 of his last 77 games (+20.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 46 games at home (+19.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 44 of his last 69 games (+18.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
| Jeff McNeil | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -165 |
| Cory Abbott | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 away games (+10.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 24 away games (+10.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 24 away games (+10.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 78 away games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 92 games (+8.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 72 games at home (+21.32 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 121 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+11.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 159 games (+6.95 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 71-88 against the Run Line (-23.75 Units / -12.44% ROI).
- 55-104 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.65 Units / -10.13% ROI
- 74-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -5.47% ROI
- 76-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -2.67% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 84-75 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 3.5% ROI).
- 98-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 0.73% ROI
- 84-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +9 Units / 5.12% ROI
- 68-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.2 Units / -13.86% ROI
Cory Abbott: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cory Abbott has limited playing time.
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .699 (58 Total Bases / 83 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .415 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .691 (76 Total Bases / 110 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .416 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.467 (103 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 1.030 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .346 (45-for-130) against Carlos Carrasco’s elevated fastball since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 17-91 (.157) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 11-56 (.164) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Nationals are just 11-190 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 83-24 (.776) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Mets are 47-34 (.580) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Mets are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 49-7 (.875) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are slugging .234 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals hitters have just 2,492 strikeouts in 12,005 PA’s (21%) since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 68% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Mets are batting .474 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Mets hitters have just 377 strikeouts in 1,900 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (6,063 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.27 (653.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have walked 172 of 2,798 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- Darin Ruf (Mets): Neck, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.