- The Mets (85-49) are -300 favorites vs the Nationals (46-87)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (5-9), 5.29 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (13-5), 3.91 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Washington Nationals (+240) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-300) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 45-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 72-59 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -120 | O 8 -105 | +240 |
| Mets | -2.5 +100 | U 8 -115 | -300 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 31 away games (+18.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 24 games (+16.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 away games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+14.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 52 games (+13.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 32 games at home (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 36 games at home (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+12.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 68 of their last 120 games (+14.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+10.05 Units / 100% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+1.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 77 of their last 134 games (+13.37 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+11.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+1.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 56-74 against the Run Line (-25.3 Units / -15.94% ROI).
- 45-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.2 Units / -12.7% ROI
- 65-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 0.94% ROI
- 58-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -13 Units / -9.12% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 72-59 against the Run Line (+13.3 Units / 8.22% ROI).
- 84-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.65 Units / 8.45% ROI
- 66-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 1.31% ROI
- 58-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.45 Units / -10.04% ROI
Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (826/1,572) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 32% (108/337) against Erick Fedde with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (381/716) when ahead in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Erick Fedde has an average spin rate of 1882.4 RPM on fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 2222.1 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .472 (50-for-106) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .521 (37-for-71) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .333 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .706 (48 Total Bases / 68 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .414 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .603 (47 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .370 — second Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 15-77 (.163) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Nationals are just 9-175 (.049) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Nationals are just 22-47 (.319) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 13-33 (.283) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 38-9 (.809) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
The Mets are 46-22 (.676) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Mets are 29-6 (.829) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Mets are 74-3 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 35% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Nationals have won just 59% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 277 double plays in 2,152 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,489 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets have scored first in 72% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .260 (2,708 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .327 (5,078 PA’s) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.54 (536.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .271 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 71 of 1,194 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, Day-to-Day
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Left Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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