- The Padres are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Padres TV Channel: MAS2 | PDTV
The Washington Nationals (+180) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-225) on Monday, June 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Nationals are 38-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 41-41 ATS.
Nationals vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 1-7, 5.63 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 5-6, 3.47 ERA
Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 8 -110 | +180 |
| Padres | -1.5 -105 | U 8 -110 | -225 |
Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 67.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+12.70 Units / 141% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+12.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+9.70 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 11 games (+40.30 Units / 366% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+14.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+13.70 Units / 91% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+11.35 Units / 28% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 69 games (+16.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 69 games (+16.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 71 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 38 away games (+7.65 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 50 games (+5.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+5.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 46-31 against the Run Line (+12.73 Units / 12.93% ROI).
- 38-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.85 Units / 15.9% ROI
- 33-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -12.7% ROI
- 40-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.53 Units / 4.15% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 41-41 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 2.65% ROI).
- 41-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.6 Units / -8.03% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -0.67% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.35 Units / -8.1% ROI
Padres vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Padres vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kyle Higashioka (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -140 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .313 (200-for-638) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .489 (312 Total Bases / 638 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .490 (299 Total Bases / 610 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .362 (693 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .286 — fourth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has allowed an OPS of just .336 (99 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .623 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .062 (2-for-32) against Matt Waldron when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 29% (18/62) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (19/101) against Matt Waldron on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are 8-1 (.889) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Nationals are just 61-101 (.377) after a win since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Nationals are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 157-206 (.433) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are just 9-21 (.300) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Padres are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .059.
The Padres are just 1-103 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are 31-4 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 520 strikeouts in 2,677 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 116 walks in 2,127 PA’s (6%) when leading off an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .926 (1,642 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.082.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 382 strikeouts in 2,089 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .320 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .335 (2,089 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .352 (2,111 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 28 of 191 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (22 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (5,890 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have walked 18 of 113 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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