- The Phillies are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (7-7), 4.58 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (6-4), 4.59 ERA
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Washington Nationals (+165) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-200) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 36-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 54-51 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 9 -115 | +165 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -105 | U 9 -105 | -200 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 34 away games (+21.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 37 games (+11.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 away games (+10.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 35 away games (+9.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 35 games at home (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+12.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.05 Units / 55% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
| Josiah Gray | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 56 of their last 94 games (+18.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+4.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.40 Units / 59% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 55 games (+14.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 57 of their last 100 games (+11.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 games (+10.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+1.05 Units / 6% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 46-61 against the Run Line (-23.1 Units / -17.55% ROI).
- 36-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.75 Units / -17.74% ROI
- 52-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -1.6% ROI
- 49-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -6.37% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 54-51 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 2.39% ROI).
- 57-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 0.78% ROI
- 53-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 1.25% ROI
- 47-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -11 Units / -9.52% ROI
Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .796 (125 Total Bases / 157 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: .548 — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 30 of 198 left-handed batters (15%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 56% (464/830) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .627 (101 Total Bases / 161 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (260/451) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 59% when ahead in the count (10th lowest)– 16th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (tied for ninth highest among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of 23% (17 SO in 75 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 86th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .182 (12-for-66) against Kyle Gibson on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — 95th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 17-40 (.298) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Nationals are just 103-23 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Nationals are just 36-62 (.367) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 65-103 (.387) at home since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 12-36 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Phillies are 10-36 (.217) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Phillies are just 5-6 (.455) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 30-23 (.566) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 261 double plays in 1,970 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters have just 231 strikeouts in 1,246 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .503 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
The Phillies are 12-36 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Phillies hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 386 of their 1,590 plate appearances (24%) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.71 (419.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .307 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .274 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .259 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Phillies have won 44% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Right Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Clippard (Nationals): Groin, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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