- The Reds are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals / Reds TV Channel: MAS2 | BSOH
The Washington Nationals () visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds () on Saturday, March 30, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Nationals are 0-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 1-0 ATS.
Nationals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | O | ||
| Reds | U |
Nationals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s game with 57.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+20.75 Units / 64% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+11.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.85 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+11.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 away games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games at home (+10.93 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 135% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 66.67% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .293 (210-for-717) against Patrick Corbin in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had a strikeout rate of just 16% (124/790) in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had a strike rate of just 58% (451/776) in two strike counts in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin allowed an OBP of .344 (787 PA’s) in the 2023 season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — fourth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
49% of Hunter Greene’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (179/518) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 25% (32/128) against Hunter Greene in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene struck out 34% (83/244) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are just 39-63 (.382) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 21-37 (.362) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Nationals are just 120-173 (.410) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 25-42 (.373) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 49-38 (.563) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 17-24 (.415) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Reds were just 24-12 (.667) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals are just 3-12 (.200) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .320 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 44% in righty-righty matchups in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
The Reds have an average HR distance of 394.2 feet since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 398.7.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,225 of 12,548 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, Out
- Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): Foot, Day-To-Day
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Oblique, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lower Leg, Day-To-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, Day-To-Day
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Abdomen, Out
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Lower Leg, Out
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, Out
- Joey Meneses (Washington Nationals): Knee, Out
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Dominic Smith (Washington Nationals): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
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