- For the 11th time in 12 years, the Dodgers have preseason minus odds to win the NL West.
- The Dodgers have the highest win total (103.5) since the 1999 New York Yankees.
There hasn’t been much suspense regarding the National League West division for the last decade. The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 10 of the previous 11 division crowns since 2013, finishing runner-up to the San Francisco Giants in 2021.
But is it possible that the NL West is a bit more competitive after last year’s World Series run by the Arizona Diamondbacks?
NL West Division Winner Odds
- Los Angeles Dodgers -550
- San Francisco Giants +1000
- Arizona Diamondbacks +1100
- San Diego Padres +1100
- Colorado Rockies +25000
Based on the latest MLB odds, the Dodgers should have no problem handling business in the NL West. They have an implied probability of 84.6% to win the division at -550.
It marks the 11th time in the past 12 years that the Dodgers have minus odds to win the NL West in the preseason.
- 2024: -600
- 2023: -120
- 2022: -225
- 2021: -250
- 2020: -470
- 2019: -350
- 2018: -220
- 2017: -205
- 2016: +115
- 2015: -275
- 2014: -220
- 2013: -125
NL West Win Totals & Projected Standings
| Team | FanGraphs | PECOTA | BetMGM Win Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 93.6-68.4 | 100.1-61.9 | 103.5 |
| Giants | 83.2-78.8 | 85.6-76.4 | 83.5 |
| Diamondbacks | 83.1-78.9 | 83.8-78.2 | 84.5 |
| Padres | 83-79 | 81.6-80.4 | 83.5 |
| Rockies | 62.5-99.5 | 57.3-104.7 | 60.5 |
While the Dodgers have won 100-plus games in five of the previous six full seasons, it should be noted that this year’s preseason win total is especially high.
In fact, it would be the highest preseason win total since the 1999 New York Yankees had an over/under of 104.5 before repeating as World Series champions.
That might help explain why the Dodgers’ win total has received the most under money at BetMGM thus far.
Despite the lofty MLB betting win total, the Dodgers are projected to finish below that mark at FanGraphs and PECOTA. That’s because prognosticators often forecast a median outcome, missing the extreme seasons (good and bad) for teams.
After that, there isn’t much separating the next three teams in the division. Baseball odds and projections expect the Diamondbacks, Giants, and Padres to all finish above .500 this year.
NL West Betting Prediction
Prediction: Three NL West teams to make the playoffs (+325)
The NL West is +375 — behind both the AL East (+220) and NL East (+300) — in odds to be the division with most playoff teams. But dead heat rules do apply when betting in that market.
In the exact playoff teams market, the NL West is -150 to send two teams to the postseason. The assumption is that the Dodgers and the NL West runner-up will get in.
But there is a reasonable chance the third-place team in this division grabs the final wild-card spot over the NL Central’s runner-up and the third-place team in the NL East.
FanGraphs currently gives the Diamondbacks a 46.8% chance to make the playoffs, while the Giants (44.4%) and Padres (40.2%) are not far behind. No other NL division has more than two teams with a 40% chance or better of making the playoffs.
NL West Team Previews & Predictions
Arizona Diamondbacks
With the Dodgers well ahead of the pack in the division, shifting to the top-two finish market is the better play. The Diamondbacks are +125 to stay in the top two of the NL West.
Colorado Rockies
Colorado projects to be one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball once again, which is why it’s worth targeting Kris Bryant’s home-run prop ahead of the 2024 season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers could be a potential juggernaut this season, as they already have an implied probability of 35.71% to win the NL and 21.74% to win the World Series.
San Diego Padres
Losing Soto and all that pitching production will hurt, but there is much to like about the players San Diego landed this offseason. The Padres are making a bet they can contend both now and in years to come.
San Francisco Giants
Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco’s newest leadoff batter, offers the most upside in the latest NL Rookie of the Year odds. He should make an immediate impact for the Giants.
2024 MLB Division Preview & Predictions
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