- The Padres are -165 favorites vs the Cubs
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski
- Watch the game on MARQ
The San Diego Padres (-165) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+140) on Thursday, April 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Padres vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 13-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 14-9 ATS.
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -115 | -165 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -105 | +140 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 27 games (+18.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+11.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+14.40 Units / 101% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.30 Units / 60% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)
Cubs vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Cubs vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Cubs vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 away games (+2.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 13-13 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -8.55% ROI).
- 13-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -11.89% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -12.18% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 3.73% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 14-9 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 19.4% ROI).
- 13-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 17.7% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 3.14% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -13.07% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (60/102) against Seth Lugo in two-strike counts since last season — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (113/273) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .275 (52-for-189) against Seth Lugo since last season — tied for 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .229 — 10th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (106/221) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (18/49) against Hayden Wesneski on pitches in the strike zone this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has allowed an OBP of just .192 (26 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .297 — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (34/101) against Hayden Wesneski on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has a strike rate of 69% (107/154) — 9th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — 92nd Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Padres are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Padres are just 3-69 (.042) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Padres are 36-12 (.750) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 0-8 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Cubs are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Cubs are just 1-80 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Cubs are just 12-2 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .210 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Padres are batting just .216 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters are slugging just .219 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.13 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .309 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .661 (494 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .881 (345 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .317 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 28 of 231 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have walked 17 of 116 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents are hitting just .214 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 2.42 (70.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jameson Taillon (Cubs): Groin, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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