- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (-145) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) on Thursday, April 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 9-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 13-6 ATS.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +105 | O 10 -115 | -145 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -130 | U 10 -105 | +120 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 21 games (+16.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.10 Units / 72% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+10.40 Units / 97% ROI)
- Matt Carpenter has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.35 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.30 Units / 103% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+9.00 Units / 180% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Ryne Nelson | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 71% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+8.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.95 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 9-11 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -15.56% ROI).
- 9-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -21.71% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.15 Units / -14.25% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 5.01% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 13-6 against the Run Line (+6.4 Units / 24.57% ROI).
- 11-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 35.93% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 5.71% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -13.64% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (15 Total Bases / 15 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .440 — first Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 51% of the time (42/82) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (329/680) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has induced opposing hitters to ground into 1 double play in 4 opportunities (25%) this season — tied for 11th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (9/73) against Ryne Nelson — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has not walked any of the 40 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has not walked any of the 30 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 16% (5/32) against Ryne Nelson with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 31% — third Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 3-67 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 82-29 (.739) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Padres are 34-15 (.694) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Padres are 23-3 (.885) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 99-33 (.750) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 122-24 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 65-12 (.844) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .223 this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres hitters are slugging just .208 with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .672 (3,418 PA’s) at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .328 (3,533 PA’s) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Diamondbacks on 54% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.. *
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .297 (820 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .372 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 21 of 125 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres pitchers have walked 24 of 179 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have walked 81 of 767 batters (11%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 83 of 712 batters (12%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Jose Herrera (Diamondbacks): Head, Day-to-Day
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
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