- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on BSAZX
The San Diego Padres (-155) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) on Saturday, April 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 10-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 14-7 ATS.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +100 | O 9.5 -105 | -155 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -120 | U 9.5 -115 | +130 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 66.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 23 games (+19.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+11.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.30 Units / 69% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+8.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Joe Musgrove | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 98% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 10-12 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -13.97% ROI).
- 10-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -20.26% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -8.79% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.21% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 14-7 against the Run Line (+6.05 Units / 20.83% ROI).
- 12-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 32.5% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.2 Units / 9.42% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -16.99% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .250 (17-for-68) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 95th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 4 of 214 batters (2%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,520/3,517) vs left-handed batters since the 2020 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% (57/178) against Joe Musgrove on fastballs since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 8 of 40 right-handed batters (20%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of just 59% (110/185) against right-handed batters this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 12 of 86 batters (14%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 10th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has thrown low pitches 71% of the time (61/86) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Padres are 82-29 (.739) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Padres are 19-21 (.475) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Padres are just 1-8 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 100-33 (.752) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 110-23 (.827) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 122-24 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .207 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Padres are batting just .229 at home since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Padres are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Padres are batting just .216 this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 11 walks in 256 PA’s (4%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 29 walks in 513 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 47% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 21 of 124 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have walked 24 of 196 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Jose Herrera (Diamondbacks): Head, Day-to-Day
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
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