- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Drey Jameson
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The San Diego Padres (-155) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) on Sunday, April 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 11-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 14-8 ATS.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +100 | O 9 -105 | -155 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -120 | U 9 -115 | +130 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 65.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 24 games (+18.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games (+10.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+11.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+9.70 Units / 75% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.60 Units / 101% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Drey Jameson | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+2.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.95 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.30 Units / 71% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 11-12 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -9.83% ROI).
- 11-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -16.22% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.3 Units / -12.89% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 4.19% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 14-8 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 15.65% ROI).
- 12-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 26.74% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 4.29% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -12.08% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .184 (477 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 93rd Percentile.
Yu Darvish allowed an OBP of just .067 (15 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .281 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 11% (36/326) against Yu Darvish since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 23% (3/13) against Yu Darvish — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 45% (29/64) against Drey Jameson this season — 2nd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — 99th Percentile.
Drey Jameson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 46% (31/67) this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 60% — third Percentile.
Drey Jameson has allowed a slugging percentage of .520 (13 Total Bases / 25 ABs) with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .236 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 66% (21/32) against Drey Jameson on breaking pitches this season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 33% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Padres are just 1-8 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Padres are just 3-68 (.042) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 24-3 (.889) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 100-33 (.752) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 110-23 (.827) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 62-17 (.785) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Diamondbacks are just 30-24 (.556) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .215 this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters are slugging just .217 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .325 (3,638 PA’s) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .672 (3,418 PA’s) at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 40 walks in 805 PA’s (5%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .295 (1,957 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .369 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 20 of 124 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have walked 24 of 205 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have allowed 26 stolen bases this season — tied for most in MLB.
Padres pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 93 of 817 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .180 against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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