Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (45-31) are -135 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (34-41)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (1-0), 3.52 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (3-7), 3.75 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The San Diego Padres (-135) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) on Wednesday, June 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 45-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 42-33 ATS.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +120O 8 +100-135
Diamondbacks +1.5 -145U 8 -120+110

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.45 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+8.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 away games (+7.75 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+14.70 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Buddy Kennedy has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.55 Units / 47% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Christian Walker 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
David Peralta 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Christian Walker 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
David Peralta 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 -130 0.5 -110

Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Christian Walker 0.5 +120 0.5 -175
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
David Peralta 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +250 0.5 -375

Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Madison Bumgarner 4.5 +130 4.5 -185
Mike Clevinger 5.5 +120 5.5 -175
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 75 games (+7.55 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games (+5.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+1.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+8.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+8.25 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 64 games (+1.40 Units / 2% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 40-36 against the Run Line (+4.9 Units / 5.13% ROI).

  • 45-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 5.85% ROI
  • 34-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.55 Units / -11.48% ROI
  • 40-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 3.14% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 42-33 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 5.76% ROI).

  • 34-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -3.03% ROI
  • 33-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -12.64% ROI
  • 40-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 3.78% ROI

Mike Clevinger has limited playing time.

Madison Bumgarner: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

17 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Madison Bumgarner has thrown off-speed pitches 80% of the time (241/302) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.

48 of Madison Bumgarner’s 121 breaking pitch strikeouts (40%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Madison Bumgarner has allowed an OPS of .749 (162 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .481 — first Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are just 36-5 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Padres are 20-6 (.769) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Padres are 24-15 (.615) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Padres are 37-9 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 9-27 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 82-21 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Diamondbacks are just 90-14 (.865) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Diamondbacks are just 4-8 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters are slugging .267 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,279 of their 3,837 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .189 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .187 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .214 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 34% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.4

Padres pitchers have walked 41 of 688 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Padres have won 59% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .186 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Right Shoulder inflammation, D15
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Manuel Machado (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.