Padres vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 17

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 17, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (65-54) are -155 favorites vs the Marlins (52-65)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (4-4), 3.47 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (7-7), 3.54 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Diego Padres (-155) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Wednesday, August 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Padres vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 65-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 53-64 ATS.

Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +115O 7 -105-155
Marlins +1.5 -140U 7 -115+125

Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 42 away games (+23.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+20.40 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 away games (+16.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 games (+14.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.55 Units / 57% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games (+15.55 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.45 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+10.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Brandon Drury 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Josh Bell 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Brandon Drury 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Josh Bell 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Brandon Drury 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Josh Bell 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez 5.5 +115 5.5 -165
Mike Clevinger 5.5 -105 5.5 -135
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 52 of their last 94 games (+14.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 44 away games (+4.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 61 away games (+1.65 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+14.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+0.80 Units / 7% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 55-64 against the Run Line (-11.95 Units / -8.11% ROI).

  • 65-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -3.62% ROI
  • 55-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.35 Units / -8.74% ROI
  • 61-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.04% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 53-64 against the Run Line (-21.3 Units / -13.55% ROI).

  • 52-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.25 Units / -12.3% ROI
  • 50-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -17 Units / -13.08% ROI
  • 61-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.5 Units / 5.07% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 15% (5/33) against Mike Clevinger this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 19% (10/52) against Mike Clevinger this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

Mike Clevinger has walked 5 of 30 left-handed batters (17%) this month (3 games) — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — seventh Percentile.

Mike Clevinger has not allowed a walk in his last 69 PAs against a RHH dating back to July 12nd — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 147.

Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 40% (132/331) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 42% (86/206) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (165/417) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (161/429) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Padres are 32-30 (.516) on the road this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Padres are 22-6 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

The Padres are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Padres are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Marlins are just 8-24 (.250) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

The Marlins are just 6-38 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.

The Marlins are just 7-27 (.206) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Marlins are just 8-27 (.229) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Padres hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Padres hitters are slugging just .374 at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,470 of their 4,470 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters are slugging .231 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,597 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .635 (2,597 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Marlins hitters have 255 strikeouts in 901 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have 721 strikeouts in 2,597 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres pitchers have walked 62 of 1,063 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.5

Padres pitchers have walked 30 of 592 batters (5%) this month (16 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 17% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .216 against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Head, Day-to-Day
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.