Padres vs Tigers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 27

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(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 27, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The (64-32) are favorites vs the (64-32)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (9-4), 3.27 ERA
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal (7-8), 3.88 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Diego Padres () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Detroit.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Padres vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 55-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 45-53 ATS.

Padres vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres O
Tigers U

Padres vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Tigers vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+13.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 35 away games (+13.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.20 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 34 away games (+10.05 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+9.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Miguel Cabrera has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.15 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Austin Meadows has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Austin Meadows has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Eric Haase has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)

Tigers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Haase 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Harold Castro 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Javier Baez 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Jonathan Schoop 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Tigers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Haase 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Harold Castro 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Javier Baez 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jonathan Schoop 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Tigers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Haase 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Harold Castro 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Javier Baez 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Jonathan Schoop 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Tigers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tarik Skubal 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 40 of their last 74 games (+10.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 52 away games (+9.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 52 away games (+6.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 64 games (+4.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 95 games (+14.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+11.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+7.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.60 Units / 16% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 47-52 against the Run Line (-6.15 Units / -5.02% ROI).

  • 55-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 0.4% ROI
  • 45-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -10.75% ROI
  • 52-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 1.95% ROI

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 45-53 against the Run Line (-16.3 Units / -13.09% ROI).

  • 39-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.3 Units / -9.84% ROI
  • 38-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.7 Units / -20.16% ROI
  • 55-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.8 Units / 12.72% ROI

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .074 (4 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .220 (11 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .364 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .148 (47-for-318) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 9% (16/180) against Yu Darvish this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — first Percentile.

Tarik Skubal: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .117 (9-for-77) against Tarik Skubal’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 98th Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has a strikeout rate of 40% (34 SO in 85 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has allowed a slugging percentage of just .204 (11 Total Bases / 54 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 — 94th Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has a strike rate of 71% (240/338) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Padres are 30-23 (.566) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Padres are just 2-33 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Padres are 46-12 (.793) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Padres are 133-16 (.893) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .875.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Tigers are just 4-43 (.085) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.

The Tigers are just 16-32 (.333) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Tigers are just 39-51 (.433) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Tigers are just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,373 of their 4,147 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .339 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .369 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .588 (2,607 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .580 (1,721 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .286 (3,518 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .267 (1,721 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Padres have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .189 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.4

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes this month (24 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Tigers pitchers this month (24 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Tigers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Rony García (Tigers): Bicep, D15
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
  • Wily Peralta (Tigers): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Pineda (Tigers): Triceps, D15
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • MacKenzie Gore (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Abrams (Padres): Biceps, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.