- The Mets (73-39) are -225 favorites vs the Phillies (62-49)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (8-5), 3.67 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (8-2), 1.97 ERA
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Philadelphia Phillies (+180) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-225) on Friday, August 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Phillies vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 62-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 63-49 ATS.
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -125 | O 7 -110 | +180 |
| Mets | -1.5 +105 | U 7 -110 | -225 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 44 away games (+15.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 42 away games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 30 games (+17.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+14.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 36 games at home (+11.70 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 7.5 -150 | 7.5 +105 |
| Ranger Suarez | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 61 games (+17.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 106 games (+13.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 60 games (+12.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 29% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 50 games at home (+25.22 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 112 games (+21.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 112 games (+16.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 50 games at home (+15.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 74 games (+10.95 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 58-53 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 3.79% ROI).
- 62-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 2.93% ROI
- 55-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.16% ROI
- 50-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -8.35% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 63-49 against the Run Line (+16.8 Units / 12.34% ROI).
- 73-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.75 Units / 12.78% ROI
- 58-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 4.83% ROI
- 47-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.3 Units / -13.3% ROI
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (17/130) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .160 (27-for-169) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (120/202) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1893.3 RPM on fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 2224.9 — first Percentile.
Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has struck out 36% (196/540) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .120 (25 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .300 — 98th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .219 (539 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .243 (1,061 PA’s) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 99th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 13-37 (.260) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Phillies are 11-37 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Phillies are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 51-18 (.739) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 54-5 (.915) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mets are 38-18 (.679) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Mets are 26-5 (.839) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Mets are 25-12 (.676) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.091 (56 PA’s) against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (1,197 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Phillies are batting .340 against LHP this month (5 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Phillies hitters are slugging .680 against LHP this month (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .270 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Mets hitters have just 577 strikeouts in 2,947 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .323 (7,011 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 61 of 987 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 153 of 2,412 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): Calf, Day-to-Day
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
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