- The Phillies (84-72) are -200 favorites vs the Nationals (54-102)
- Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (10-7), 4.84 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Aníbal Sánchez (3-6), 4.05 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Philadelphia Phillies (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+165) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Phillies vs Nationals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 84-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 70-86 ATS.
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -120 | O 7.5 -105 | -200 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +100 | U 7.5 -115 | +165 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 52.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 55 away games (+17.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 59 away games (+14.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 47 games (+20.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+16.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Call | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anibal Sanchez | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -145 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 86 of their last 151 games (+18.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 106 games (+11.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 away games (+10.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 105 games (+3.85 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 78 of their last 143 games (+13.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 89 games (+12.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 63 games (+7.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 42 games (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 37 games (+4.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 78-78 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -1.87% ROI).
- 84-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -0.93% ROI
- 77-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.3 Units / -1.91% ROI
- 73-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.75 Units / -6.29% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 70-86 against the Run Line (-22.75 Units / -12.11% ROI).
- 54-102 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.35 Units / -10.13% ROI
- 71-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -7.3% ROI
- 76-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -0.76% ROI
Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Noah Syndergaard has allowed 30 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 25 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed a slugging percentage of .867 (26 Total Bases / 30 ABs) in late innings this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .396 — first Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Aníbal Sánchez: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Anibal Sanchez has limited playing time.
Tommy Romero has limited playing time.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 14-54 (.206) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 11-55 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 17-89 (.160) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 54-87 (.383) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 29-49 (.372) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 28 strikeouts in 81 PA’s (35%) against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters have 7 strikeouts in 16 PA’s (44%) against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .441 at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Phillies hitters are slugging .540 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .486 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 35% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .249 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies pitchers have walked 182 of 2,808 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .258 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .264 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Hand (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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